The Milton Sports Guy breaks down the Jays’ chances in 2008 after a 4-2 start, fresh off series’ vs. the Yankees and Red Sox
After sweeping the defending champs this weekend, Jays’ fans have high hopes for 2008. Do the Jays actually have a chance to make the postseason for the first time in 15 years, or will it be yet another third place finish in the AL East?
J.P. Ricciardi’s offseason moves landed the Blue Jays some serious depth even if some of them were questionable, which bodes well if the injury bug hits the team hard again this season. Don’t kid yourselves though, this team will need to stay healthy to have any kind of chance to clinch a postseason berth.
I liked the Glaus for Rolen swap of two oft-injured third basement. They lose Glaus’ power, but his range at third base was rapidly declining and it was getting increasingly painful to watch him lumber around the bases. Rolen shores up the defence at the hot corner and hits for a better average. If Thomas and Wells can rebound after poor offensive seasons last year, then Glaus’ home run total won’t be missed. The key for Rolen: stay healthy. How’s he doing with that so far? He currently has a pin in his broken finger, so I’d say not good.
I also liked the signing of the scrappy David Eckstein, although they had just finished signing John McDonald supposedly as their everyday shortstop. You gotta love Johnny Mack, arguably one of the best defensive shortstops in the AL, but if you want to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, you have to hit. Eckstein gives them the fiesty, leadoff slap/contact hitter they need to set the table at the top of the order, even if he doesn’t have the defensive prowess of McDonald. And he’s a winner, celebrating World Series championships for Anaheim and St. Louis in 2002 and 2006 respectively, a trait you can’t underestimate.
The infield depth comes in the form of backup SS McDonald, and utility man Marco Scutaro, currently playing third base in Rolen’s absence. Both players are capable Major League starters which bodes well for the Jays if the infield starts to get banged up.
The outfield looks good too, even if I still don’t get the release of Reed Johnson. Ricciardi brings in Shannon Stewart to fight for the left field job, then Johnson, by all accounts outplays and outhits him in Spring Training looking to rebound after back injuries sidelined him for most of 2007 – and then gets cut by the club??
The only saving grace is that the Jays have Buck Coats, Adam Lind and Travis Snider coming up in the system, which maybe left Johnson expendable – I’m thinking his back problems may have been more serious than we know. Anyhoo, for now it’s Stewart (who can “fall outta bed and hit” according to J.P.) and Matt Stairs sharing the duties in LF, with Stairs able to fill in for the Big Hurt at DH if necessary and one of the aforementioned youngsters ready to step in if injuries require them to do so.
Centre field and right field are set for years to come with Vernon Wells and the newly signed Alex Rios, as long as Wells can rebound and hit like he did in 2006 and Rios can continue his progression into one of the game’s top young stars.
Another interesting move by Riccardi was the signing of catcher Rod Barajas who shunned the Jays last year, agreeing to a contract in principle, then bolting and signing with the Phillies. Barajas had an impressive 2006 with Texas, followed by a terrible 2007 campaign. Now he’s here in Toronto as Gregg Zaun’s backup – how long is debatable. Zaun struggled at the plate last year, leading me to believe that you could see Barajas if Zaun doesn’t step it up both offensively and, um, memo to Mr. Zaun: you might want to throw out a baserunner once in awhile, ok?
Then there’s the pitching staff, one area where most experts agree the Jays can compete with the Red Sox and probably have an advantage over the Yanks.
Roy Halladay promises to be in Cy Young contention as usual, and after him in the rotation, there is a lot of promise, but a lot of questions as well….
Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan had breakout seasons last year and it certainly seems as if each is ready to get over the hump of mediocrity and take their games to the next level. A.J. Burnett has pitched like, well, um… like A.J. Burnett during his tenure in Toronto, struggling with injuries and inconsistency. He dominated the Yankees last week, but as is always the case with Burnett, who knows how he’ll perform the next time he takes the mound. He’s a key to the Jays’ chances – he needs to have a breakout season. Then there’s the #5 spot which is currently held by Jesse Litsch, who just has to basically not suck.
The bullpen looks solid with the likes of Downs, Tallet, League and last year’s closer, Jeremy Accardo. The bullpen would look much better of course with the injured Casey Janssen and B.J. Ryan back, but Accardo has racked up 3 saves so things look ok until Ryan can come back from elbow surgery.
On paper, things look good for the Jays – if they can a) stay healthy; b) have everything go right for them (ie. all of the players who need to have big years do indeed have big years); c) benefit from the Yankees and/or Red Sox struggling and d) stay healthy. That’s a lot to ask. You thought so too, right?
Looking at the rest of the divison, I’d say you have to favour the Red Sox again. They have both the offence and pitching, and a great combination of vets and fiesty young players like outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury and pitcher Clay Buchholz. Baltimore looks to be absolutely horrible, despite their hot start, and Tampa looks like they could surprise everyone, although I think it’s more likely they’ll either get off to a fast start then fade over the last half of the season, or get off to a brutal start and finish red hot in September once the games don’t matter anymore.
That leaves the Yankees as the wild card. Again this year, they look like the team the Jays could beat out. They’ve struggled out of the gate the last two years, but have managed to turn it on in June/July/August behind their unstoppable lineup. The question again for New York will be pitching. Chein Ming Wang is solid, and Phil Hughes is a great prospect, but it’s time for Mike Mussina to be put out to pasture. Pettite is on the downside of his career and now has the whole Clemens/steriod thing following him around this year. Joba Chamberlain looks to be lights out in the ‘pen, and Rivera could go either way. He’s still a dominant closer but he’s not getting any younger so who knows when he’ll just go “Trevor Hoffman” and just lose it as all closers eventually do?
The Yankees could possibly be beat, but again, the stars will need to align for the Jays to do just that. The chances of the Yankees not being able to figure things out and the Jays staying healthy and playing flawless ball: not great. Look for Toronto to be nicely sandwiched in third in the AL East come September with Tampa closing in.
If I’m correct on this, it will be time for ownership to look a little more closely at J.P. Ricciardi. He’s in his 7th season leading the Blue Jays with nary a playoff berth to show for his efforts. Yep, it’s an important year in Toronto, and the good news for Jays’ fans is that so far, it does look like the team is playing with a bit more of a sense of urgency.
All we have to do now is sit back and wait to see how the next, oh 156 games or so to play out…
Here’s how I see the standings this year:
AL East
x-Boston
y-New York
Toronto
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
AL Central
x-Cleveland
Detroit
Chicago
Minnesota
Kansas City
AL West
x-Los Angeles
Seattle
Texas
Oakland
NL East
x-New York
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Florida
Washington
NL Central
x-Chicago
Milwaukee
Cincinnati
St. Louis
Houston
Pittsburgh
NL West
x-Arizona
y-Los Angeles
San Diego
Colorado
San Francisco
(x-division winner; y-wild card)
Now Milton, what do you think?
