Super Bowl XLII: Journey to the Edge of Perfection
Tom Brady and the Patriots are one win away from immortality. The Milton Sports Guy thinks they will cap off a legendary 19-0 season Sunday - but the toughest question comes from the gambling angle: will they cover the 12 points against the upstart Giants?
Well, here we go folks - Super Bowl XLII in Glendale (basically suburban Phoenix for the geographically challenged) where the New England Patriots look to win their 4th Championship under Tom Brady and cap off the first ever 19-0 season. They face the upstart New York Football Giants who have willed their way to Arizona against all odds - 3 wins on the road against supposedly superior competition, led by the supposedly questionable Eli Manning. I’m definitely not a fan of either team, but lemme tell ya, this is one worth watching…..
The fact that the Patriots, even though they lacked the dominance they showed earlier in the season, made it to this point, makes this Super Bowl a ratings winner. This one will go down in history. Either they go undefeated and will be known as undoubtedly the best NFL team ever, or the Giants stun them leading underdog supporters rejoicing the world over and Patriot followers sick at the thought of how close they were.
Can you imagine the Patriots losing this game? Not only would the 19-0 dream go up in ashes, but they would also fail to be recognized as Super Bowl champs - something I’ve pretty much annointed them the title of, since oh, about week 4. As big as a Patriots’ win would be - thinking of it now, a loss would be equally as monumental. The only downside for fans rooting for the big, bad Patriots to lose, would be the yearly footage of the geezers from 1972 Dolphins obnoxiously, smugly swilling champagne. I think everyone outside of south Florida would agree with me when I say that’s something I would love to see come to an end.
Anyway, onto the big game. What will happen? How will this all play out? Who will win and more importantly to some, who beats the spread?
That leads me first, to the Milton Sports Guy’s prediction:
NEW ENGLAND (-12) over N.Y. Giants
That’s right. I’m calling the Pats to cover despite the fact that I’ve been burned by this very same train of thought over the last few weeks of the regular season and throughout the playoffs when it comes to New England.
I got so sucked by their huge early-season landslide victories, that I just kept taking them to cover huge spread after huge spread, even though it was apparent by about week 12 or 13 that this definitely wasn’t the same team from early on. Either they got a little banged up or the weight of an undefeated season was finally starting to get to them (probably a bit of both). Whatever the case, they have come seriously back to earth over the course of the last 2 months.
But what did I do? I still called them to cover a large spread in both playoff tilts vs. Jacksonville and San Diego. Each time, the Patriots did just enough to win by a comfortable-but-not-outrageous margin. Two weeks ago, both of my predictions bombed when the Giants stunned the Packers right in Green Bay (after Green Bay walked all over my Seahawks in the snow a week earlier). I figured the Giants’ road success was sure to end in Green Bay, but how did I know Favre was going to finally cough up a hairball and play like the pre-2007 Favre?
Anyhoo - my ‘note to self’ after the conference championships was: “when in doubt, take the points.” That’s right - good teams have trouble covering once you get into playing games outdoors in January. It’s not only that - teams are also more equally matched, but the inclement weather definitely levels the playing field.
So I took the Giants (+12) right? Uh…. no. I’m following my instinct here, definitely not my head on this one….
What I’m thinkin’ is this: If the Giants were going to beat the Patriots, the stage was set for week 17. That’s when all the chips fell into place for New York, and yet they still couldn’t pull it off. They were at home, playing well and had a huge lead late in the game against the 15-0 Patriots who certainly looked anxious in carrying the weight of expectations of a perfect regular season. That was their chance - and the Patriots rallied and did just enough to escape with the victory.
Now, granted, the Giants have been more than impressive in the post-season. Led by Eli Manning, somehow they’ve knocked off the favoured Bucs, Cowboys and Packers in hostile territory. They did play the Patriots tough as well, so they’re not intimidated. I think this one comes down to New England though.
First of all, I would take the Patriots to cover 12 points based on this fact alone: Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare to face the Giants in the biggest game of his career.
That’s all I really needed, but I thought of a few other reasons: The rest of the players have also had time to rest, heal and contemplate their place in history. They’ll be pumped - they have something to prove, and remember ’spygate?’ - yeah, they’ve still got that chip on their shoulders as well. They’re hungry for this perfect season - a dream season for anyone who’s dreamed of putting on an NFL uniform. They’ll be ready.
And the final reason: I think their Brady-to-Moss led offence will finally get on track and look as good as it’s looked in weeks now that they’re out of the elements, playing in perfect conditions on the fast track in Glendale.
Oh yeah, and then there was my internal struggle over this decision and the way irony likes to toy with me: I was clearly going with the Giants until I thought “wouldn’t it be ironic if i took the points in what should be a close game after being burned all postseason for doing the opposite, and then out of nowhere, the Patriots rise to the occasion and trounce the G-men by 35 points?” I could so picture that exact scenario occuring to me - that was the final straw. I swung my pick around and began to focus on the reasons above in justifying all of this….
How will this game play out? I see the Patriots’ offence coming out red hot and going from there. The Giants will exploit the Patriot D and score their points, but I think Brady and Moss will just keep coming and New York will eventually fade.
Oh, and a final score you ask?
Patriots 41 Giants 24.
Okay, that’s it. What an NFL season it’s been - the best in quite some time in my opinion. I had started to sour on the NFL a few years ago - I just couldn’t get into any of the teams or storylines. Peyton upsetting the Pats and winning his first Super Bowl last year started to bring me back, but this whole ongoing Patriots’ undefeated/juggernaut story has really intrigued me, with the re-emergence of the Cowboys and Packers as tasty subplots.
A special thanks again also to the Milton Pigskin Prognosticator who was our featured NFL expert on most of the 19-week season here in this space. The quality research he brought to this column I’m sure was appreciated by all, compared to my statistically-lacking predictions…. Thanks MPP and enjoy the big game!
Okay Milton, it’s your turn. Who’s your pick for Super Bowl XLII?