After the Packers’ convincing win vs. the Seahawks and because the Giants’ stunned Dallas, Favre and co. are one home win away from a berth in the Super Bowl.
Well, we’ve arrived at my second-favourite weekend of the NFL season, the Conference Championships (#1 is the divisional playoff weekend, ie. last weekend – 4 usually intriguing matchups over two days). I love the AFC and NFC Championship games because it usually involves two great teams facing each other, usually some kind of rivalry or history, and unlike the Super Bowl which is contested in either warm weather cities or inside of a domed stadium, these matchups are the most important NFL games which still involve the elements. With this Sunday’s games being played in New England and Green Bay, it’s clear that the elements will indeed be a factor.
How about last week’s games, specifically Sunday’s double-underdog uprising which was thrilling, stunning and shocking all at the same time.
Those words barely begin to scratch the surface of describing a Norv Turner-led team on the road without at times, Phil Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson, upsetting Peyton Manning and the defending champion Colts. I didn’t see that game playing out any other way than a drubbing for Indy. I just didn’t. Even with San Diego up late, I figured Manning would buckle down and lead the Colts efficiently down the field for the winning score. Give the Chargers credit for exploding for some big plays on offence and putting the clamps on Indy late for the win.
The late game went as I wrote last week, although I was still surprised to see it play out. Dallas was flat (I’m sure Romo’s bye week off with Jessica Simpson in Cancun had nothing to do with it), and the Giants continued their inexplicable success on the road this year. Even more inexplicable may have been Terrell Owens’ post-game tearful meltdown defending Tony Romo, given how well he typically gets along with his quarterbacks….
Anyhoo, don’t hold your breath waiting for the underdogs to pull out victories this weekend – the Milton Sports Guy sees both favourites easily advancing to what would be a classic Super Bowl between America’s team (and QB), Favre and the Packers, and America’s villains, the undefeated juggernaut Patriots.
On to the picks (Home team in CAPS)
NEW ENGLAND (-14) over San Diego
I think we can all agree that New England will win this one outright – the question is the spread. 14 is a lot of points to give, especially in an AFC Championship game. It would be a tough decision if the Chargers were healthier – Rivers seems doubtful and LaDainian Tomlinson may not play the whole game. A Norv Turner/Billy Volek-led team with LT at far less than 100% on the road at the 17-0 Patriots? That’s not even factoring in my other rule that you never take the warm weather team on the road vs. a cold weather team. This has blowout written all over it – but again, that’s what I thought last week. Somehow the Turner/Volek combo teamed up for some huge plays and San Diego’s D came up big as well in the clutch. Then there’s New England who aren’t the same unstoppable force they were early in the season. In recent weeks, the Eagles, Ravens, Giants and Jags have given them a real challenge. Teams are figuring out that if you double-team Moss and avoid crucial turnovers, you have a chance. Ahhh, now there’s the key: “crucial turnovers.” This is what I predict will be the difference. With no LT and Volek more than likely leading the offence in the frigid conditions, you have to think the Patriots will force at least two Charger turnovers that will swing the game in their direction or turn a close game into a laugher. Therefore, I’ll try my chances once again taking the Pats to cover the big spread. I think Jacksonville was a tougher opponent than San Diego and they won by 11 last week, so 14 isn’t out of the question against this banged-up bunch.
GREEN BAY (-7) over N.Y. Giants
Although Eli Manning and the Giants have been unconscious on the road all season, and they’re fresh off a huge win vs. a bitter rival, don’t forget the roll that Brett Favre and the Packers are on… Even after finding themselves down by 14 early in last week’s game didn’t phase them, as they went on to outscore the Seahawks 42-6 from that point on. As I mentioned last week, the Packers are a team that can get a lead and then extend it. Also, Favre is a great cold weather QB while Eli Manning has admitted that he hates playing in the cold. And it promises to be cold in Green Bay on Sunday. Don’t you have to think that this road winning streak the Giants have going has to end at some point?? I think this is the week it all falls apart for the G-men. Imagine this scenario: the Packers get the ball, march down the field and score a TD. Now it’s 7-0, and Eli runs out there with his hands in his pockets and his teeth chattering. They hand off twice, and his third throw flies over Amani Toomer’s head and nearly kills Green Bay’s equipment manager. As he’s running off the field with his teeth chattering, Fox cuts to Archie Manning sitting in the stands with one of those, “I should have smacked him around more when he was little” looks on his face. Then they cut to Favre on the Packers sidelines, who’s standing there with a big grin and thinking, “Holy crap, this is gonna be easier than I thought.” All of that doesn’t seem too far-fetched now, does it.
And the juicy matchup between Favre and the Packers and the 18-0 Patriots will be set. If that’s how this plays out, this year’s Super Bowl will be one for the ages.
Now Milton, what do you think?
Just watching the Chargers/Pats….
My prediction of Pats (-14) was looking a little shaky when the ‘bolts got to within 1 at 7-6, but then the crippled Rivers throws a crucial pick leading to a Pats TD, and now the Pats are driving again after another Rivers pick on a poorly thrown hail mary pass….
14-6 Patriots right now….