Milton blog

4 intriguing matchups are on tap for this weekend, including the Seahawks venturing into the unfriendly confines of Lambeau Field to take on the Pack.

NFL Divisional Playoff Picks (Home Team in CAPS)

GREEN BAY (-7.5) over Seattle

As a Seahawk fan, I get the feeling this one is going to sting. A matchup with the Packers at Lambeau reminds me of 2004 (I believe) when the Seahawk/Packers Wild Card matchup went to OT. The Seahawks won the coin toss and the cameras caught Matt Hasselbeck’s humble response: “We’re taking the ball and we’re gonna score!” before trotting back to the sidelines. He prompty threw an interception which was returned for the winning touchdown. Not good. Let’s hope Mr. Hasselbeck has left his crystal ball back in Seattle this week.

I’d love to see my Seahawks stroll into Lambeau and escape with a gritty, hard fought narrow victory and advance to the NFC final, but it’s just not going to happen. Two years removed from an MVP season and leading his team to the Super Bowl, Shaun Alexander has all but disappeared and has become a non-factor. His backup, known in Seattle as ‘Triple M’ (Mediocre Maurice Morris) is hardly the answer, so the Seahawks are NOT running the ball. Then there’s the nagging injuries to D.J. Hackett and Deion Branch. Do you feel even remotely confident that the Seahawks could come from behind vs. Favre and the Pack? Neither do I.

Let’s look at Green Bay. They’ve won their last seven games by 11, 34, 14, 11, 31, 19 and 21 points. You know what that tells me? That they can protect and expand a lead.

The Seahawks were fortunate to beat a 9-7 Redskins team - why would anyone think they can hang with a 13-3 team on the road when they haven’t had a good road win all season? Besides, we have a team that never gets calls (Seattle) going against the current America’s Team (the Packers). No official wants to be the one who made the iffy call that screwed up Brett Favre’s storybook season. Come on.

The Pack will win this one in a romp.

NEW ENGLAND (-13) over Jacksonville

The Jags have become everyone’s sexy pick this postseason. I’ve noted in this column before that SI’s Peter King himself believes the Jags are New England’s biggest playoff threat this year. Built like a northern team with a solid running game, the Jaguars at a glance do seem like they could give the Patriots a real fight, especially in the cold and snow of Foxboro in January.

Well, I’m going to buck the trend a little. I think the Patriots have re-grouped after some close games toward the end of the season as the pressure of an undefeated regular season began to wear on them. I think they’ll come out this weekend refreshed and firing on all cylinders and I’m going with them to cover.

Let’s also remember last week, when the Jaguars were lucky to escape Pittsburgh with the win, after some shaky coaching decisions from the Steeler sideline. The Steelers dropped 19 points on the Jags in about five seconds last weekend once they started chucking the ball every down and I think we can agree that the Patriots’ passing game is a leeeetle bit better than the Steelers’. Another factor against Jacksonville is the fact that the weather will be quite balmy for New England in January. A cold, snowy, muddy surface may have evened the field a little…

Here are a couple of other stats to chew on:

• Belichick’s playoff record in New England: 14-2
• Brady’s playoff record at home: 6-0
• Belichick’s record against Jack Del Rio: 3-0
• New England’s lifetime record against Jacksonville: 7-1
• New England’s 2007 regular-season record: 16-0
• Number of ‘07 Patriots wins by 14-plus points: 11
• Record of ‘07 Jags after falling behind by more than seven points: 0-4

Take the Pats to win big.

INDIANAPOLIS (-8) over San Diego

With the exception of the rain-soaked Sunday night victory over a depleted Indy team, San Diego has shown consistently that they take too long to get going against every other quality opponent, falling behind to New England by 24, Green Bay by 10, Jacksonville by 14, Tennessee by 14 and Tennessee by six in the playoffs. Why would Round 2 be any different?

Here’s how I see this one playing out: Indy comes out like gangbusters at home, Phil Rivers looks lost, Norv Turner looks shellshocked, LaDainian Tomlinson sulking by the second quarter and eventually, the Chargers roll over and play dead. You can’t fall behind to the Colts in Indy unless you have Tom Brady and Randy Moss on your team.

For the Chargers to win this, their defence will have to chip in big-time by scoring at least 14 points and I just don’t see it.

From my point of view, you gotta go with Dungy and Manning at home in this one.

N.Y. Giants (+7.5) over DALLAS

My first instinct was to go with the Giants because as divisional rivals, they always seem to play Dallas tough. I also like the way Eli Manning has been playing of late, and they’re a strong road team.

Then, I swung to the Cowboys thinking of their potent offence, the fact that they’re at home and looking to prove their top-ranked NFC status, and maybe because the Giants are going to pull the ‘ol ‘one good game and then roll over and call it a season’ playoff routine we see so often (see last year’s Seahawks, and soon to be this year’s Seahawks).

Now, thinking about how the Cowboys’ offence revolves around big plays (see: Romo, Tony passing to Owens, Terrell), I’m a little concerned about T.O.’s injury. Will he be at 100%? Probably - he’s a big game performer, but the Cowboys’ offense doesn’t look so imposing anymore, and their collective limp to the finish looms as an enormous red flag. Maybe taking the Giants and the points doesn’t look so bad anymore….

Then, consider these points: as I mentioned, they played them tough in the previous two games, (hey, don’t I need one underdog covering in Round 2?), Eli seems to look better on the road than at home, and could the wave of Giants’ running backs eventually wear Dallas down?

Move to coaching and who inspires more confidence, Tom Coughlin or, ahem, Wade Phillips?

That last sentence alone makes me feel even more shaky about the Cowboys and I have to take the points. The Giants could even win this game outright and I think they will with a late field goal.

Go with the New York Football Giants.

Okay, those are my picks - take ‘em to the bank. Now Milton, what do you think?

This entry was posted on Saturday, January 12th, 2008 at 12:17 pm and is filed under Guy Stuff, Sports. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.