(Home teams in caps):

SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over Redskins

Do you trust four weeks of strong play … or 13 seasons of mediocrity?
Sorry, Todd Collins. I can’t take you on the road in a tough stadium in January. In the past three years, only three opposing QBs have beaten Matt Hasselbeck at Qwest Field: Drew Brees, Phil Rivers and Alex Smith. (Hold on, Alex Smith sucks. That doesn’t help my theory at all. Let’s do this again.) In the past three years, including the playoffs, Matt Hasselbeck is 21-3 starting at Qwest Field. (Much better.) The 36-year-old Collins didn’t start a game for 10 full years before ripping off a four-game winning streak against a lousy Chicago team, a Jekyll-and-Hyde Giants team, a one-dimensional Vikings team and a Dallas team that didn’t try. Now we’re getting less than four points with him in a road playoff game? Doesn’t that seem insane?

Rule No. 1 of the Playoff Manifesto 4.0 says you should never, ever, EVER back a crappy QB on the road. The question remains: Is Collins a crappy QB who caught lightning in a bottle for four games against a favorable schedule, or is Collins quietly giving us the script for the next half-decent Disney sports movie, “The Late Bloomer?” As much as I like Cinderella stories, I’d rather put my money on a 36-year-old career backup playing like a 36-year-old career backup at Qwest Field. Call me crazy.

The Pick: Seattle 30, Washington 15

Jags (-2) over STEELERS

Everyone loves the Jags.

Everyone loves the Jags.

Everyone loves the Jags.

You’d be hard-pressed to find a first-round game in recent NFL history with more red flags. The Jags dominated Pittsburgh four weeks ago. The playoff line opened with Pittsburgh favored by 1, then shifted three points toward Jacksonville. When I called my buddy Geoff to discuss the lines on Wednesday (something we’ve been doing for 20 years), the first thing he said to me was, “I love the Jags.” When I picked up USA Sports Weekly this week, I couldn’t help but notice all nine of the writers picked the Jags. According to sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” page, 93 percent of the action is on the Jags. Turn on any sports radio station or TV show and if you don’t hear someone say, “I’ll tell you something, I love this Jaguars team” within three minutes, you should just call the police to be safe. On the flip side, you can’t hear the Steelers mentioned without hearing they’re on their third left tackle, or that Aaron Smith’s injury was devastating to their defense.

The Steelers have three things in their favor other than Rule No. 2 and Rule No. 8 of the Manifesto. First, Heinz Field is an absolute mess. Nothing evens out a game like a screwed-up field, so if that papier-mache grass starts to fall apart, look out. Second, the Jags are built to play tight games or protect second-half leads — they aren’t a team you want to back financially when they’re trailing by 10 at the 2:30 mark of the third quarter. If the Steelers take a lead and catch one break, the crowd and the field could carry them from there. And third, as goofy as this sounds, the Steelers have a ton of playoff experience — even someone like “Ben” has played in five playoff games and a Super Bowl. Where’s the playoff experience with the Jags?

So why take them then? Because they dominated the Steelers four weeks ago. I don’t care what the final score said, that game wasn’t close with Willie Parker and Smith. Even the Steelers fans seem curiously pessimistic about Saturday night’s game and were probably more excited about the Penguins-Sabres snow game. (And with reason. That game was awesome in HD. Even I ended up watching the third period, the OT and the shootout. If the NHL ever becomes an all-outdoors league, I’m back, baby!) Anyway, since Jacksonville was the hottest non-Patriots team heading into the playoffs (Rule No. 6), Vegas should have made that line “Jags minus-3″ from the get-go. At least. Since they had to spend the past few days chasing Steelers money, for one of the few times I can remember, the casinos screwed up and it’s going to end up costing them if the Jags win, which they will. I think.

(Deep breath …)

(Deeper breath …)

The Pick: Jaguars 21, Steelers 17

BUCCANEERS (-2.5) over Giants

We’re about to find out the definitive answer for the question, “Can an NFL team’s actions in the past two weeks of the season determine its karmic fate for the playoffs?”

The Bucs mailed in the final two weeks, screwed up New England’s first-round pick from the 49ers trade and did everything but announce to the league, “We are totally fine with getting the Giants in the first round.” Meanwhile, the Giants admirably busted their butts against the Patriots and suffered significant casualties in the process. If the Karma Gods were in charge of this game, the Bucs would lose.

Unfortunately, karma doesn’t decide football games — coaches and quarterbacks and injuries and home-field advantage invariably play a bigger role than anything else. Tampa has the coaching advantage (Jon Gruden with three weeks to prepare against Tom Coughlin … yikes), the QB advantage (would you rather have Jeff Garcia at home or Eli Manning on the road), the health advantage and home-field advantage. More importantly, the Giants have become somewhat of a bandwagon pick, as evidenced by the curiously low line. And then there’s this: When I write the Playoff Manifesto 5.0, you can bet anything that Eli and Coughlin will be featured in a section that includes the words “don’t” or “beware.” Seriously, you’re thinking of backing Coughlin, Eli and (probably) his second-string center in a road playoff game? Are you nuts?

The Pick: Buccaneers 27, Giants 20

CHARGERS (-9) over Titans

The Chargers won two nail-biters this season (Indy and Tennessee, two games they could have blown) and their other nine games by 11-plus points apiece. You know what that means? They’re the perfect favorite for this type of playoff game — they should easily beat a team that can’t play from behind (no playoff team in the AFC has worse QBs than the Titans), they know they should win and as long as things are going their way, they’ll look fantastic because they’re textbook front-runners. From a gambling standpoint, I’d love for them to cruise to a blowout win if only because it could potentially suck the line lower for San Diego-Indy in the second round … which would be awesome because there’s no chance in hell Phil Rivers and Norv Turner are strolling into the RCA Dome and hanging with the Colts.

(Wait, did I say that out loud? Um, I mean, it would be awesome because a Chargers-Colts game would be a total dogfight! I can’t see that line going higher than Indy by 3! Anything higher and Vegas is crazy!)

There’s only one problem: We’ve been here before with San Diego. In 2006, the Chargers blew a second-round home game to the underdog Patriots. In 2004, they blew a first-round home game to the underdog Jets. Each time, they killed approximately 20 million gamblers who were dumb enough to throw them in a two-team teaser or parlay. And even though the coach of those teams is gone (Marty Schottenheimer), he was replaced by Norv Turner, which was a little like replacing a broken condom with a busted IUD. Is that a good thing or a bad thing for playoff purposes? Well, Marty was 5-13 in the playoffs. You can’t get worse than that unless you tried to coach with a head injury. Norv’s playoff winning percentage is a much more palatable .500. — I know, he’s only 1-1 lifetime, but still — and he doesn’t have the same debilitating, “I’m in the playoffs and something horrible is about to happen” look on his face that Marty had. Why?

Because he has that look all the time.

When Marty got “the look,” he tightened up and so did his team. In Norv’s case, his vacant staring and occasional grimace will make that wild-card battle against the Titans seem like any other game to the Chargers. We’re going to have to wait a week before he and Rivers conspire to kill their season. Be patient.

The Pick: Chargers 34, Titans 7

Here are my initial picks (I may need to change them before game time…. we’ll see):

Washington (+3.5) over Seattle
As a Seahawks’ fan, I haven’t been too comfortable with the Seahawks inconsistency this season… Just when you think they’re rolling, they lose; just when I was ready to give up the season, they put together a mildly impressive winning streak. They should and probably will have enough to beat the Redskins, but the way this season has gone, I just think they’ll struggle and this will end up being a close game decided by a field goal late. Either Seattle will win a tight one or I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Redskins continue their momentum by stunning the Seahawks at home…

Jacksonville (-2) over Pittsburgh
Peter King coined Jacksonville as ‘the team most likely to beat the Patriots’ in the AFC and also noted that they play more of a ‘Northern’ or ‘cold-weather’ game than most northern, cold-weather teams in the league. Hence, they look to be the team most likely to walk into a cold-weather city and upset the home team. Now, they’ve been pegged as the favourites vs. the Steelers, so I guess a Jags win might not be considered and upset, but home field means something, especially in the NFL. Jacksonville has what it takes to win this, but watch out if their running game is hampered by an unstable field surface at Heinz Field. This is another great matchup and again, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pittsburgh won either…

N.Y. Giants (+3) over Tampa Bay
I know Tampa has a dominating defence, but I’m just playing a hunch here. I liked the way the Giants played against the Patriots last week in a nothing game, and I just have a feeling they walk into Tampa this weekend and throw up some points against the up-and-down Bucs, who had a season much like my Seahawks - wildly inconsistent. I think it will help Eli Manning being a road ‘dog for this playoff game, easing pressure and expectations…

Tennessee (+9) over San Diego
Yet another tough call, but I think the spread is too high so I’ll take the points. If the Titans don’t win outright, I think they cover. San Diego has played better of late after a rough start, but they are always prone to getting the ‘yips’ come playoff time (see last year’s loss to New England at home as big favourites). Even if the Chargers get out to a lead, I don’t think they’ll be able to put the pesky Titans away. Again, I think Tennessee just might win this one and if not, they should be able to stay within 9.

Ok, there you have it - as I mentioned earlier, I may need to jump back in here and flip a couple around before game time - these games should be great! The first round of playoffs in every one of the major sports is the best these days and usually always provides great matchups.

out.