Wildcard weekend according to the Milton Pigskin Prognosticator
Wild card weekend always features intriguing matchups and this year is no different. Are the Jacksonville Jaguars more of a cold-weather team than the Steelers? We’ll find out Saturday night when the Jags visit Heinz Field where they’ve already beat the Steelers once this year.
4:30pm Saturday
SEATTLE (-3.5) over Washington
When looking at how these teams compare statistically you see no major advantage for either team as you have Seattle’s middle of-the-pack-ranked offense against the Skins’ similarly ranked defense (9th overall against 12th overall) and the Skins’ 15th-ranked offense against the Seahawks’ 15th-ranked defense.
Record: Seattle 10-6, Washington 9-7
League Rankings:
Offense – Overall: Seattle 9th, Washington 15th
Offense – Passing : Seattle 8th, Washington 14th
Offense – Rushing: Seattle 20th, Washington 12th
Defense – Overall: Seattle 15th, Washington 8th
Defense – Passing: Seattle 19th, Washington 16th
Defense – Rushing: Seattle 12th , Washington 4th
Here are the factors that more clearly favour the home team Seahawks:
1. In their last meeting Seattle beat Washington 20-10 in the 2005 playoffs, and did so after losing 2005 MVP RB Shaun Alexander to injury in the 1st quarter.
2. Playoff experience – the Seahawks are heading to the playoffs for their 5th straight season (including a Super Bowl appearance just 2 years ago) – this is a much bigger advantage than some may think – the “playoff jitters” will not be an issue for this veteran team.
3. Game experience – Washington lost their starting QB in week 14 to a knee injury, in comes Todd Collins, who had not started a game for NINE SEASONS – sure he’s been great (winning all 4 of his starts and throwing 5 TD’s with no INT’s) however it’s always harder in the playoffs and especially when it’s your first time and on the road, not to mention facing the 4th best pass rushing team (45 sacks this season – with Patrick Kerney leading the way).
4. Playing on Empty – not only have the Redskins had to deal with the murder of their team mate, which can be motivating but is also a very exhausting process to deal with, they also are coming off 3 straight weeks of “win or face elimination” games against the Giants, Vikings and Cowboys – so these two factors combined are more than likely going to result in a Redskin team with no gas left in their tank – watch for adrenaline to get them through the first quarter or two, but I predict Seahawk domination for the second half of this match.
8:00pm Saturday
Jacksonville (-2) over PITTSBURGH
Hats off to the odds-makers for having the balls to make Jacksonville the favourite for this game, as it is more than warranted, as conventional odds-makers would have incorrectly favoured Pittsburgh.
Here’s some of the key reasons why Jacksonville is the FAR superior team:
1. Pittsburgh finished the regular season at 10-6, but they had an INCREDIBLY soft schedule – I have mentioned this in several of my past weekly predictions, but finally took the time to tally this information today: an incredible 10 of their 16 games were against teams that finished the season with losing records (finishing a less than dominating 7-3 against these teams) while they had a lacklustre record of 3-3 against teams with records of .500 or better. Meanwhile, Jacksonville comes from one of the best two divisions in the league, as only their AFC South division along with the NFC East finished with all 4 teams at .500 or better – meaning they played 6 divisional games against legitimate teams – and for the AFC South, 3 of the 4 teams made the playoffs (Indy, Jacksonville and Tennessee) with only 8-8 Houston on the outside looking in.
2. With the incredibly soft schedule that benefited the Steelers this year all of their team rankings are very tainted – their #1 league defensive ranking is largely thanks to playing 10 of their games against poor teams, so the Jags offensive and defensive rankings are much more earned and more comparable to Pittsburgh than the numbers indicate:
Record: Pittsburgh 10-6, Jacksonville 11-5
League Rankings:
Offense - Overall: Pittsburgh 17th, Jacksonville 7th
Offense – Passing: Pittsburgh 22nd, Jacksonville 17th
Offense – Rushing: Pittsburgh 3rd, Jacksonville 2nd
Defense – Overall: Pittsburgh 1st, Jacksonville 12th (only a difference of 16.8 versus 19 p.p.g. allowed)
Defense – Passing: Pittsburgh 3rd, Jacksonville 15th
Defense – Rushing: Pittsburgh 3rd, Jacksonville 11th
3. Pittsburgh has several injury concerns going into this game, including having lost 2 of their starting offensive linemen to injury in the past 3 weeks, giving a further advantage to the Jags defense. The Steelers also lost their leading rusher (RB Willie Parker, 1316 yards this season) a few weeks ago.
4. Recent history also favours the Jags who have won the last 3 meetings versus the Steelers, including their only meeting this season in week 15 when they won 29-22 and had possession of the ball for almost 75% of the game – very dominating!
5. So often the team with fewer errors is the team that wins in the NFL, and this also benefits Jacksonville – they finished the regular season at +9 (9 more takeaways than giveaways) while Pittsburgh finished at +3. Likewise Jags QB Garrard finished with an impressive TD to Int ratio of 18-3 while Steeler pivot Rothlisberger finished at 32-11.
The only hope for the Steelers is playing at home and having the advantage of starting a QB with much more playoff experience than the Jags QB – but that simply ain’t enough to get the job done.
1:00pm Sunday
TAMPA BAY (-3) over New York Giants
Like Jacksonville (above) the Giants come from a strong division, with three of four teams going to the playoffs (Dallas, NYG and Washington) and the only team not advancing finishing an admirable 8-8 (Philadelphia). Meanwhile the Bucs’ NFC South continues to be a very curious division with the team to win the division having been last place the previous year for the past 3 or 4 seasons, and this season all other NFC South teams finished under .500. Regardless of this fact the Bucs had a much needed shot in the offensive arm this year w
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Ok, thanks as always, MPP for all of your diligent research in breaking down these intriguing matchups….
Here are my initial picks (I may need to change them before game time…. we’ll see):
Washington (+3.5) over Seattle
As a Seahawks’ fan, I haven’t been too comfortable with the Seahawks inconsistency this season… Just when you think they’re rolling, they lose; just when I was ready to give up the season, they put together a mildly impressive winning streak. They should and probably will have enough to beat the Redskins, but the way this season has gone, I just think they’ll struggle and this will end up being a close game decided by a field goal late. Either Seattle will win a tight one or I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Redskins continue their momentum by stunning the Seahawks at home…
Jacksonville (-2) over Pittsburgh
Peter King coined Jacksonville as ‘the team most likely to beat the Patriots’ in the AFC and also noted that they play more of a ‘Northern’ or ‘cold-weather’ game than most northern, cold-weather teams in the league. Hence, they look to be the team most likely to walk into a cold-weather city and upset the home team. Now, they’ve been pegged as the favourites vs. the Steelers, so I guess a Jags win might not be considered and upset, but home field means something, especially in the NFL. Jacksonville has what it takes to win this, but watch out if their running game is hampered by an unstable field surface at Heinz Field. This is another great matchup and again, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pittsburgh won either…
N.Y. Giants (+3) over Tampa Bay
I know Tampa has a dominating defence, but I’m just playing a hunch here. I liked the way the Giants played against the Patriots last week in a nothing game, and I just have a feeling they walk into Tampa this weekend and throw up some points against the up-and-down Bucs, who had a season much like my Seahawks - wildly inconsistent. I think it will help Eli Manning being a road ‘dog for this playoff game, easing pressure and expectations…
Tennessee (+9) over San Diego
Yet another tough call, but I think the spread is too high so I’ll take the points. If the Titans don’t win outright, I think they cover. San Diego has played better of late after a rough start, but they are always prone to getting the ‘yips’ come playoff time (see last year’s loss to New England at home as big favourites). Even if the Chargers get out to a lead, I don’t think they’ll be able to put the pesky Titans away. Again, I think Tennessee just might win this one and if not, they should be able to stay within 9.
Ok, there you have it - as I mentioned earlier, I may need to jump back in here and flip a couple around before game time - these games should be great! The first round of playoffs in every one of the major sports is the best these days and usually always provides great matchups.
out.
January 5th, 2008 at 10:23 am
Here are the picks from ESPN’s Sports Guy, Bill Simmons:
(Home teams in caps):
SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over Redskins
Do you trust four weeks of strong play … or 13 seasons of mediocrity?
Sorry, Todd Collins. I can’t take you on the road in a tough stadium in January. In the past three years, only three opposing QBs have beaten Matt Hasselbeck at Qwest Field: Drew Brees, Phil Rivers and Alex Smith. (Hold on, Alex Smith sucks. That doesn’t help my theory at all. Let’s do this again.) In the past three years, including the playoffs, Matt Hasselbeck is 21-3 starting at Qwest Field. (Much better.) The 36-year-old Collins didn’t start a game for 10 full years before ripping off a four-game winning streak against a lousy Chicago team, a Jekyll-and-Hyde Giants team, a one-dimensional Vikings team and a Dallas team that didn’t try. Now we’re getting less than four points with him in a road playoff game? Doesn’t that seem insane?
Rule No. 1 of the Playoff Manifesto 4.0 says you should never, ever, EVER back a crappy QB on the road. The question remains: Is Collins a crappy QB who caught lightning in a bottle for four games against a favorable schedule, or is Collins quietly giving us the script for the next half-decent Disney sports movie, “The Late Bloomer?” As much as I like Cinderella stories, I’d rather put my money on a 36-year-old career backup playing like a 36-year-old career backup at Qwest Field. Call me crazy.
The Pick: Seattle 30, Washington 15
Jags (-2) over STEELERS
Everyone loves the Jags.
Everyone loves the Jags.
Everyone loves the Jags.
You’d be hard-pressed to find a first-round game in recent NFL history with more red flags. The Jags dominated Pittsburgh four weeks ago. The playoff line opened with Pittsburgh favored by 1, then shifted three points toward Jacksonville. When I called my buddy Geoff to discuss the lines on Wednesday (something we’ve been doing for 20 years), the first thing he said to me was, “I love the Jags.” When I picked up USA Sports Weekly this week, I couldn’t help but notice all nine of the writers picked the Jags. According to sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” page, 93 percent of the action is on the Jags. Turn on any sports radio station or TV show and if you don’t hear someone say, “I’ll tell you something, I love this Jaguars team” within three minutes, you should just call the police to be safe. On the flip side, you can’t hear the Steelers mentioned without hearing they’re on their third left tackle, or that Aaron Smith’s injury was devastating to their defense.
The Steelers have three things in their favor other than Rule No. 2 and Rule No. 8 of the Manifesto. First, Heinz Field is an absolute mess. Nothing evens out a game like a screwed-up field, so if that papier-mache grass starts to fall apart, look out. Second, the Jags are built to play tight games or protect second-half leads — they aren’t a team you want to back financially when they’re trailing by 10 at the 2:30 mark of the third quarter. If the Steelers take a lead and catch one break, the crowd and the field could carry them from there. And third, as goofy as this sounds, the Steelers have a ton of playoff experience — even someone like “Ben” has played in five playoff games and a Super Bowl. Where’s the playoff experience with the Jags?
So why take them then? Because they dominated the Steelers four weeks ago. I don’t care what the final score said, that game wasn’t close with Willie Parker and Smith. Even the Steelers fans seem curiously pessimistic about Saturday night’s game and were probably more excited about the Penguins-Sabres snow game. (And with reason. That game was awesome in HD. Even I ended up watching the third period, the OT and the shootout. If the NHL ever becomes an all-outdoors league, I’m back, baby!) Anyway, since Jacksonville was the hottest non-Patriots team heading into the playoffs (Rule No. 6), Vegas should have made that line “Jags minus-3″ from the get-go. At least. Since they had to spend the past few days chasing Steelers money, for one of the few times I can remember, the casinos screwed up and it’s going to end up costing them if the Jags win, which they will. I think.
(Deep breath …)
(Deeper breath …)
The Pick: Jaguars 21, Steelers 17
BUCCANEERS (-2.5) over Giants
We’re about to find out the definitive answer for the question, “Can an NFL team’s actions in the past two weeks of the season determine its karmic fate for the playoffs?”
The Bucs mailed in the final two weeks, screwed up New England’s first-round pick from the 49ers trade and did everything but announce to the league, “We are totally fine with getting the Giants in the first round.” Meanwhile, the Giants admirably busted their butts against the Patriots and suffered significant casualties in the process. If the Karma Gods were in charge of this game, the Bucs would lose.
Unfortunately, karma doesn’t decide football games — coaches and quarterbacks and injuries and home-field advantage invariably play a bigger role than anything else. Tampa has the coaching advantage (Jon Gruden with three weeks to prepare against Tom Coughlin … yikes), the QB advantage (would you rather have Jeff Garcia at home or Eli Manning on the road), the health advantage and home-field advantage. More importantly, the Giants have become somewhat of a bandwagon pick, as evidenced by the curiously low line. And then there’s this: When I write the Playoff Manifesto 5.0, you can bet anything that Eli and Coughlin will be featured in a section that includes the words “don’t” or “beware.” Seriously, you’re thinking of backing Coughlin, Eli and (probably) his second-string center in a road playoff game? Are you nuts?
The Pick: Buccaneers 27, Giants 20
CHARGERS (-9) over Titans
The Chargers won two nail-biters this season (Indy and Tennessee, two games they could have blown) and their other nine games by 11-plus points apiece. You know what that means? They’re the perfect favorite for this type of playoff game — they should easily beat a team that can’t play from behind (no playoff team in the AFC has worse QBs than the Titans), they know they should win and as long as things are going their way, they’ll look fantastic because they’re textbook front-runners. From a gambling standpoint, I’d love for them to cruise to a blowout win if only because it could potentially suck the line lower for San Diego-Indy in the second round … which would be awesome because there’s no chance in hell Phil Rivers and Norv Turner are strolling into the RCA Dome and hanging with the Colts.
(Wait, did I say that out loud? Um, I mean, it would be awesome because a Chargers-Colts game would be a total dogfight! I can’t see that line going higher than Indy by 3! Anything higher and Vegas is crazy!)
There’s only one problem: We’ve been here before with San Diego. In 2006, the Chargers blew a second-round home game to the underdog Patriots. In 2004, they blew a first-round home game to the underdog Jets. Each time, they killed approximately 20 million gamblers who were dumb enough to throw them in a two-team teaser or parlay. And even though the coach of those teams is gone (Marty Schottenheimer), he was replaced by Norv Turner, which was a little like replacing a broken condom with a busted IUD. Is that a good thing or a bad thing for playoff purposes? Well, Marty was 5-13 in the playoffs. You can’t get worse than that unless you tried to coach with a head injury. Norv’s playoff winning percentage is a much more palatable .500. — I know, he’s only 1-1 lifetime, but still — and he doesn’t have the same debilitating, “I’m in the playoffs and something horrible is about to happen” look on his face that Marty had. Why?
Because he has that look all the time.
When Marty got “the look,” he tightened up and so did his team. In Norv’s case, his vacant staring and occasional grimace will make that wild-card battle against the Titans seem like any other game to the Chargers. We’re going to have to wait a week before he and Rivers conspire to kill their season. Be patient.
The Pick: Chargers 34, Titans 7