Milton blog

The Giants are the only thing standing in the way of the Patriots and a perfect 16-0 season.

Week 17 Predictions

Home Team in CAPITALS

New England (-14) over N.Y. GIANTS
The Patriots need this one to become the first team in NFL history to have a perfect 16-0 season and the first team to go undefeated for the season since the ’72 Dolphins (who went 12-0). Both of these teams are already in the playoffs, and both of these teams are already locked in to their playoff spot (Patriots: first in the AFC, Giants: 5th in the NFC) so this game has no effect on their playoff positioning. The only thing that matters is the Patriots’ quest for perfection, along with being very close to breaking various other regular season records, including total points and total TD catches by a receiver during the regular season. The Giants have nothing to gain in having their stars play this game, or at least should be expected to have them only play a limited amount, which should make a big Patriots’ win the most likely outcome.

Buffalo (+7.5) over PHILADELPHIA
Both of these teams come into this game at one game under .500 (7-8) and only one will finish with a .500 season. The matchup of interest in this game will be Bill’s RB Marshawn Lynch against the Eagles’ 5th ranked run defense – look for Lynch to win this over the banged-up Eagle D.

TAMPA BAY (+2.5) over Carolina
The odds makers must be favouring the Panthers for this game based on the assumption the Bucs will be resting some starters for this game as they’ve already locked up the 4th seed for the NFC playoffs. However, there are some other factors which favour the Bucs in this one – it’s a home game for Tampa where they play strong, QB Garcia may play at least one half, as he’s only had one game back since several weeks off due to injury, and with that being said, the 2nd-ranked Bucs defence can preserve whatever lead Garcia and the other offensive starters who play for only the first half will secure.

MIAMI (+3) over Cincinnati
You know you’ve had a crappy season when you’re only favoured by a field goal over the 1-14 Dolphins. Miami has a chance in this one, as the Bengals live and die by their passing game, and in this one they face the 4th-best pass defence in the league, so watch for Miami to give their home crowd something else to be happy about besides “earning” the first draft pick for 2008.

Dallas (+9) over WASHINGTON
Even if Dallas chooses to rest all their stars for the entire game, I can’t take the Skins to beat the top NFC team by such a large spread – even at home. Yes, the Skins need to win to make the playoffs, however winning by over 9 points will not be easy considering they’re starting their back-up QB Todd Collins (who is decent) and the Skins will therefore lean heavily on their run attack. Dallas however, will counter with the 4th-ranked run defence. I think the Skins will win, but not by 9.

GREEN BAY (-4) over Detroit
Green Bay has nothing to play for this week, having already clinched second spot in the NFC, however after a horrible game in Chicago last weekend they will want to end the regular season on a positive note at home. Some interesting statistics on these two teams against the spread for this season, which makes the Packers the wise choice when picking this week – Detroit is 2-5 against the spread for road games, while Green Bay is 5-1 against the spread at home. Detroit has the 2nd-worst defence when their opposition is on third down and long, while the Packers can expose this weakness with the 4th-best offense in the league (2nd-best passing game).

Jacksonville (+6.5) over HOUSTON
This should be a hard-fought divisional rival game with the Jags already locked into 5th spot in the AFC while the Texans are motivated to finish the season with a .500 record. Watch for the Jags’ 2nd-ranked run attack to expose the weak Texans run defence.

New Orleans (-2) over CHICAGO
The Saints need to win plus have the Redskins and Vikings lose in order to squeak in for the final playoff spot in the NFC, so you know they’ll be bringing their A game to Chicago, who relies heavily on their 5th-ranked offense (3rd ranked passing game) while the Bears have no hope of making the playoffs and no clear starting QB after this disappointing season.

BALTIMORE (+3) over Pittsburgh
The Steelers’ starting QB is not scheduled to start this game, with 4th place in the AFC already guaranteed. Meanwhile the Steelers 3rd-ranked run attack will have their hands full since losing RB Willie Parker to injury last week AND going against the 2nd-best run defence in the NFL. The Ravens have had a horrible year, but stand a great chance to compete in this meeting.

Seattle (+2) over ATLANTA
Seattle shows great discipline, leading the league with a low of only 60 penalties called against them all season, while the Falcons have had more than twice as many penalties called against them this season (and that’s not including the charges against Vick!). Even if Seattle rests a lot of their starters for the playoffs they will still contend against the 3-12 Falcons.

CLEVELAND (-10) over San Francisco
The 9-6 Browns need the Titans to lose to make the playoffs – they should have absolutely no problem taking care of the horrible 49ers… now, what about the Titans?

Tennessee (-6) over INDIANAPOLIS
The Titans need to win this game to maintain the final playoff spot in the AFC, if they lose the Browns are in. The Colts should be resting a lot of their starters (having sewn up 2nd in the AFC) meaning the Titans’ 5th-ranked running game and 5th-ranked defence should be able to earn them this critical win.

Minnesota (-3) over DENVER
The Broncos have no shot at the playoffs, while the Vikings need to win and have Washington lose to Dallas in order to finish 6th in the NFC. The Vikings roll into Denver with the top running game and the top run defence in the league, so they have the weapons to win this one.

San Diego (-8) over OAKLAND
By winning this game, the Chargers guarantee staying in 3rd place in the AFC, which ensures one more playoff round before they could ultimately have to face the intimidating Patriots. This will be all the incentive they need to take care of the lowly Raiders.

ARIZONA (-6) over St. Louis
The Cardinals were the sexy pick before this season started as a team that could surprise this season and make a run in the playoffs. Unfortunately that never materialized, however Warner has been great as the backup QB thrust into the starting role due to injury, so watch for them to end this season strong and hope that momentum carries through to 2008.

Kansas City (+6) over N.Y. JETS
I can never take the Jets as a favourite – they simply don’t deserve it, even with some injuries to the Chiefs.

Survivor

Here’s a summary of my picks thus far, missing only on weeks 6 and 10:

Week 1 - Denver over Buffalo
Week 2 – Pittsburgh over Buffalo
Week 3 – Carolina over Atlanta
Week 4 – Dallas over St.Louis
Week 5 – Tennessee over Atlanta
Week 6 – Seattle over New Orleans XXX
Week 7 – Washington over Arizona
Week 8 – Cleveland over St. Louis
Week 9 – Tampa Bay over Arizona
Week 10 – New Orleans over St. Louis XXX
Week 11 – Indianapolis over Kansas City
Week 12 – San Diego over Baltimore
Week 13 – New England over Baltimore
Week 14 – Minnesota over San Francisco
Week 15 – Green Bay over St. Louis
Week 16 – *the dog ate my picks*
Week 17 – Washington over Dallas

Now Milton, what do you think?

The Milton Pigskin Prognosticator is a weekly contributor to MiltonSearch.com. His NFL picks can be read on Fridays every week from now until Super Bowl Sunday. Submit your predictions vs. the spread and see how well you stack up!

This entry was posted on Saturday, December 29th, 2007 at 1:29 pm and is filed under Guy Stuff, Sports. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.