NFL Week 14 according to the Milton Pigskin Prognosticator
Will the 12-0 Patriots continue to fall back to Earth this week when they host the 9-3 Steelers in Foxboro?
Week 14 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
WASHINGTON (-3) over Chicago
Bears QB Rex Grossman is a steaming heap of crap – if the Bears’ incredible kick return man Devin Hester doesn’t score one or more TD’s than the Bears have no other legitimate threat for putting points on the board. Both of these teams come into this game with 5-7 records – only one win away from the final wildcard spot in the NFC – so the winner will remain in contention while the loser will essentially have no hope of making the playoffs. The Skins have won 3 of the past 5 meetings and watch for RB Clinton Portis to have a huge game against a Bears run defence that has given up 100 plus running yards for the past 8 straight games.
JACKSONVILLE (-10.5) over Carolina
The Jaguars have a wildcard spot for the AFC, but with the Browns and Titans just one win behind them Jacksonville needs to win these sort of lopsided matchups to maintain their postseason seat. The Panthers are 1-5 over their last six games, having beaten only the lowly 49ers and losing 4 of their 5 games by more than this spread. The Jags’ defence can greatly limit the Panthers’ ability to run the ball and bring their 2nd-ranked run offence into this game to help literally run up this score.
DETROIT (+11) over Dallas
This is the time of year when playoff spots greatly dictate how close a game SHOULD be. The Lions are currently one spot out of the playoffs and require a win to stay in contention. The Lions have lost 4 straight, but if they can’t show-up this week than their season is as good as done – so take them to “represent” this weekend.
Miami (+7) over BUFFALO
Buffalo won the first meeting this season by a mere 3 points, and truly do not have a strong enough team to ever be chosen to cover a 7 point spread, especially when facing the 3rd best pass defence in the league. The Bills would have been coming into this game on a three game losing streak if they had not played the emotionally drained Redskins last week. Take the points on this one.
N.Y. Giants (+3) over PHILADELPHIA
You’ve gotta like the 8-4 Giants and their 5th-ranked run defence against the 5-7 Eagles. The Eagles’ success rests heavily on the shoulders of RB Westbrook – so watch for them to struggle against the strong Giant run defence and the Giants need to keep winning to maintain their Wild Card spot. The Giants won their first meeting with Philadelphia earlier this season 16-3.
Oakland (+10) over GREEN BAY
Too big of a question mark regarding Favre’s availability for this game to take the Packers to cover this big spread – and even if he does start (which is likely in order to keep his consecutive game record alive) he will not be 100% and may not be able to finish the game. Sure the Packers back-up QB held his own against Dallas last week, but he’s not going to lead the Packers to blow-out wins, plus the Raiders come in with two straight big wins over K.C. (20-17) and Denver (34-20).
Pittsburgh (+13) over NEW ENGLAND
I think the Patriots could very well cover this spread, because after 2 straight close wins against mediocre teams New England will be eager to prove all their doubters wrong this weekend with a convincing win at home. However the Patriots face the top-rated defence in the league this week (best against the pass and second best against the run) and the Steelers also have the 3rd-best run attack, so it’s a pretty big spread.
TENNESSEE (+1) over San Diego
The Titans are sitting in the 7th spot in the AFC playoff hunt, so this is a critical home game for them. Tennessee has the 5th-best running game and the 5th-best overall defence. The Chargers have lost 4 of 6 road games this season, with their only wins being against sub .500 teams.
CINCINNATI (-6.5) over St. Louis
This game gives the Bengals the perfect opponent, as the Rams’ weak offence will make it easier on the lousy Bengal defence. Likewise, the 4th-ranked Bengal passing game can feast on the weak St. Louis defence.
Tampa Bay (-3) over HOUSTON
The NFC South leading Bucs have won 4 straight and their 4th-ranked defence should allow this to continue versus the 5-7 Texans, who are on a 2 game skid. As the Bucs continue to get players back off the injured reserve, their success should continue.
Arizona (+7) over SEATTLE
The Cardinals have won the past two meetings with Seattle and need a win to guarantee holding the final Wild Card spot in the NFC. Both of these teams have played well of late, with Seattle on a 4-game winning streak while Arizona has won 3 of 4 – during this stretch Arizona has averaged 31 points per game and Seattle 26 – so watch for this to be a back-and-forth high scoring game with a close finish.
Minnesota (-8.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
The Vikings have won 3 straight, while the 49ers have only won 3 all season. Minnesota has outscored their opponents 83 to 27 in just the last two games and should have no trouble running the ball down the 49ers’ throat. Winning this game will allow Minnesota to stay in the wild card hunt in the NFC.
Cleveland (-3.5) over N.Y. JETS
Besides one decent win over the overrated Steelers, the Jets’ only two other wins all season came versus the 0-12 Dolphins. Meanwhile the Brown scoring machine has racked-up 21 or more points in 10 of their 12 games this season , only being held below this amount by the #1 and #3 defences in the league (Pittsburgh and New England). The Jets are no match in this one, and the Browns need this win to keep their wild card spot with the Titans right on their tail.
DENVER (-6.5) over Kansas City
Two slumping divisional rivals meet up in this game, with the Broncos having lost 4 of their last 6 games while the Chiefs have lost 5 straight. The Broncos have won the last 3 meetings with K.C., having won by 9 or more points in the past two – so watch for QB Cutler to get back to form at home after two tough road losses, as without a win hear the 5-7 Broncos will be all but out of the playoff hunt.
Indianapolis (-9.5) over BALTIMORE
Oh those poor Ravens, having narrowly missed beating the 12-0 Patriots at home in the Monday-nighter last week. Baltimore will not have any gas left in their tanks after that emotional game, and factor in one less game to rest/prepare for a Colt team which has the 4th-ranked overall offence and the 2nd-best overall defence. In a roundabout way, the Colts will be eager to show the football world that they can beat the Ravens more handily than their arch rivals did.
New Orleans (-5) over ATLANTA
The Saints have beaten this divisional rival the last three games, by 6 points this season and by 20 and 18 points last season when Atlanta had a stronger team. The Saints should win this one with a strong passing attack, having thrown for 260+ yards in their past five games (not including last week’s loss to the 4th-ranked Tampa pass defence).
Survivor
Here’s a summary of my picks thus far, with misses in week 6 and 10:
Week 1 - Denver over Buffalo
Week 2 – Pittsburgh over Buffalo
Week 3 – Carolina over Atlanta
Week 4 – Dallas over St.Louis
Week 5 – Tennessee over Atlanta
Week 6 – Seattle over New Orleans XXX
Week 7 – Washington over Arizona
Week 8 – Cleveland over St. Louis
Week 9 – Tampa Bay over Arizona
Week 10 – New Orleans over St. Louis XXX
Week 11 – Indianapolis over Kansas City
Week 12 – San Diego over Baltimore
Week 13 – New England over Baltimore
Week 14 – Minnesota over San Francisco
Now Milton, what do you think?
The Milton Pigskin Prognosticator is a weekly contributor to MiltonSearch.com. His NFL picks can be read on Fridays every week from now until Super Bowl Sunday. Submit your predictions vs. the spread and see how well you stack up!
December 7th, 2007 at 10:48 am
Ok, here are the correct picks as the season winds down:
Washington (-3)
Gotta go with the Redskins to beat the Bears and the pathetic Grossman.
Jacksonville (-10.5)
I couldn’t figure these guys out for the longest time, but they seem to be going good now. This is the time of the year when the contenders begin to finally separate themselves…
Dallas (-11)
I disagree with the Pigskin Prognosticator. Detroit is floundering after looking so good at 6-2, and Dallas is hitting their stride. They’ll be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl while the Lions watch from the sidelines yet again.
Buffalo (-7)
I would take Miami, as 7 is a lot to cover for the Bills, but this game is in Buffalo on the frozen field turf. The Bills are a completely different team at home.
Philadelphia (-3)
I just have a hunch Philly will come up big in this game at home. The G-men have played well but I’m still not drinking the Eli Manning kool-aid.
Green Bay (-10)
I know Fav-ruh is questionable, but their backup looked decent vs. the Cowboys and the Pack are at home. Oakland has had some nice performances lately, but they’re still inconsistent, plus I have a rule that you always take the Northern team at home late in the season vs. any of the flashy California or other warm weather clubs.
Pittsburgh (+13)
The Patriots have lost some of their lustre in the past two weeks, and this is exactly the opponent who could end their dream season. The Steelers are playing well, and although I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pats cover this at home, I have a feeling defences around the league have finally figured out the Pats’ offence (okay, not completely, but the 50+ points games are done).
San Diego (-1)
Tough one to call. I like the way the Chargers are playing right now, despite Norv Turner’s coaching.
St. Louis (+6.5)
Because this seems like the perfect game and opponent for the Bengals to break out has me wanting to take the Rams. This is what the Bungles do: just when you think they’re ready to turn things around, they drive off into the ditch again.
Tampa Bay (-3)
The Bucs are making their playoff push. They should be able to beat the pesky Texans even on the road.
Arizona (+7)
Even though Seattle is on a roll, they’ve played some weak teams and haven’t exactly impressed (ok, beating Philly on the road last week was mildly impressive). They’ve proven to be terribly inconsistent this year and have underachieved. Even though they’re at home, the Cardinals have played them tough. They should be able to at least keep it close.
Minnesota (-8.5)
The Niners suck.
Cleveland (-3.5)
The Jets suck.
Denver (-6.5)
Will the real Denver Broncos please show up this week? If so, they should be able to cover at home.
Baltimore (+9.5)
Tough one to call. Will the Ravens pack it in after the demoralizing loss to New England? Possibly. And yes, Indy may want to prove that unlike the Patriots, the Ravens are not in their league. However, the game is in Baltimore and I think they’ll be hungry to again try to knock off one of the AFC powerhouses. Their offence stinks but don’t question Ray Lewis and the pride of the Ravens’ D.
New Orleans (-5)
*Yawn* The Saints, like a few other teams, need to establish themselves and begin that push for the playoffs.
Survivor: Minnesota
I hate to copy Pigskin, but I haven’t taken the Vikings yet, and you gotta think they’re a lock to beat the 49ers.
There ya go, take it to the bank!
December 7th, 2007 at 10:50 am
After a week’s hiatus, give me:
WAS
CAR
DAL
MIA
PHI
OAK
NE
TEN
CIN
HOU
SEA
SF
CLE
KC
IND
ATL
SURVIVOR IS CINCINNATI