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Will Brett Favre be feasting on Lion in the annual Turkey Bowl in Detroit?

Week 11 Picks (Home team in CAPS)

Green Bay (-3.5) over DETROIT
Gobble, gobble, gobble – Thursday afternoon football thanks to American Thanksgiving – so plan ahead, start laying the ground work for your reason you won’t be into work ahead of time – I recommend starting with a lot of coughing around the workplace on Tuesday and complaining of fever and a bad headache then take things up a notch on Wednesday by frequent trips to the washroom (have some reading material stashed in your pocket). Detroit is starting to play more to their level, having lost their last two games, while the Packers have won 5 straight and are an impressive 9-1 for the season. The Packers have the top passing offence in the NFL – better than New England, Dallas and Indianapolis – that’s very impressive. The Packers beat Detroit in both meetings last season by margins of 7 points and 8 points, so a 3.5 margin should be no problem.

DALLAS (-14) over the N.Y. Jets
Gobble, gobble, gobble – the second Thanksgiving Day game (like Americans need a weekend dedicated to overeating!) Do not be fooled by the Jets’ upset win over the Steelers last week – the Steelers are strong team but not an elite team yet (their great record going into the Jets game was due to a very soft schedule) and the Jets just got really lucky. Dallas will cover this week because: 1. they are closer to being an elite team than the Steelers, 2. the Jets won’t get lucky two weeks in a row, 3. the Jets will still be hung over from their big win last weekend and finally 4. it’s in Dallas and the Cowboys will want to give their fans a Thanksgiving treat – Texas style.

Indianapolis (-12) over ATLANTA
Gobble, gobble, gobble – do I look fat in these pants? God bless America for inventing elastic waist bands - our neighbours to the south will be stretching them to their limits this weekend! This would have been a great holiday match-up if Vick was still QB for Atlanta, but now it’s just a 3-7 Falcons team struggling to determine which of their QB’s sucks less (Leftwich was touted the starter, but pulled last week when he was stinking it up against Tampa; while Joey Harrington is no hero himself) against a Colts team that lost 2 straight before squeaking out a 13-10 win last week against K.C. With the Colts having the 3rd best offence and defence in the league watch for Manning to get back on track with this game – his TD to INT ratio the last 3 games has been a depressing 3-8, but the Falcons will give him lots of open receivers to hit and lead the Colts to a big win.

Denver (+2) over CHICAGO
The Broncos have won two straight, including their impressive Monday night win over Tennessee, while the Bears are back with Grossman at QB (who had 0 TD’s and was sacked 5 times last week) in their loss to Seattle. Even though this is a home game for the Bears, the Broncos should have been the favourite for this match-up. QB Cutler looked sharp, and the offence very solid and this will continue versus Chicago.

Tennessee (-1.5) over CINCINNATI
Even though the 6-and-4 Titans have lost their last two games they are a much better team than the 3-and-7 Bungals. Both teams have decent offences (the Titans with 4th-ranked running game and the Bengals with 5th ranked passing game) however the difference is the Titans have a middle of the road defence while the Bengals have one of the absolute worst defences in the world.

JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) over Buffalo
Boy, I sure am picking a lot of the favoured teams this weekend – but can’t help it – the spreads seem a bit too small to pass up. The Jags are 7-3 this year, and have earned that record with a decent offense (3rd-ranked running game) and a strong defense (2nd best overall). The Bills are 5-5, but all 5 wins are against sub-500 teams (2 against the Jets, Baltimore, Bengals and Miami) – the Jags will make this very obvious with a routing of the Bills this weekend.

Oakland (+5.5) over KANSAS CITY
K.C. swept this series last week and won the first meeting this season, however two of those wins were by 4 points and 2 points – this should be another close one. Rookie Raider coach Lane Kiffin has been wavering between starting Josh McCown and Duante Culpepper at QB. He went back to Culpepper last week and the Raiders have been much more competitive with him starting, which will be the case again for this game. Meanwhile the Chiefs’ back-up QB held his own in his first start last week, but his starting does not lend itself to the Chiefs posting a win with such a large spread and with an inexperienced QB against the 4th-best pass defence in the league.

Houston (+3.5) over CLEVELAND
Cleveland is having a great season, having discovered that their initial 3rd-string QB is a fantastic starter, however of their 6 wins, only 4 are by more than this spread – and those 4 games were against horrible teams, all of them with losing records (Cincinnati, Baltimore, Miami and St. Louis). The Texans have shown signs of being a contender, and come into this game with a 5-5 record and are coming off a big 23-10 win over the Saints last week, where they held the re-born Saints offense in check.

ST.LOUIS (+3) over Seattle
If this game was being played 3 weeks ago I’d take Seattle to cover, however since then the Rams have won their first two games of the season and averaging 25 points in those two games and holding their opponents to under 50 yards rushing both times. The Rams won both those games on the road with this weekend marking their home coming as a team on a winning streak as opposed to their last return home as an 0-4 team. Also of interest: Seattle beat St. Louis both times last year – but by only 2 points each time, but blew the Rams out earlier this season by a score of 33-6 before the Rams got in their groove.

N.Y. GIANTS (-7) over Minnesota
The Giants’ D has held their opponents to 15 or fewer points in 5 of their last 7 games, and are 7-1 in their last 8 games, with their only loss being against the powerful Dallas team. The Vikings have an inconsistent passing game and will likely be without their superstar rookie RB Adrian Peterson again this week (and they cannot rely on back-up RB Chester Taylor to have as good of a game against the Giant D as he did against the soft Raider run D last week).

CAROLINA (+3) over New Orleans
These division rivals are both sitting at 4-6 and both are on losing streaks (4 straight for the Panthers and 2 straight for the Saints). The Panthers have won their 3rd straight versus the Saints (including two against the Saints last year when they had a solid 10-6 record). As a result, history has the Panthers as the wise choice, and even with their 3rd-string QB starting, they should be able to hold their ground against the Saints by simply not making costly turnovers on offence, and playing solid D at home.

TAMPA BAY (-3) over Washington
The NFC South leading Bucs are on a 2-game winning streak while the 5-5 Redskins have lost their last two. Tampa Bay has the 3rd-best pass defence, meaning Washington’s only hope lies in their running game, which has totalled under 100 yards in 4 of their last six games. The Bucs are 4-1 at home this season, with 3 of those 4 wins being by a 7 or more points. These teams met in Tampa last year, with the Bucs winning by 3, that was before their offence acquired QB Garcia – which has strengthened their ability to put points on the board.

San Francisco (+10) over ARIZONA
Arizona has not been playing well enough to be favoured by 10 points over anyone, even the struggling 49ers, especially with a banged-up back-up QB in Warner. In their last three meetings (week 1 of this week and the 2 games last season) all of the games have been decided 7 points or less, with San Fran winning the first match-up this year. Arizona has won 2 straight to get their record up to 5-5, but you still can’t bank on them to blow San Fran out of the water (or the desert in this case).

Baltimore (+9.5) over SAN DIEGO
The Chargers have not played to their potential this year resulting in their 5-5 record so far this season, while the Ravens have a hard time putting up points consistently, but can rely on their 5th-ranked defence (second against the run) to keep this game within 9 points in all likelihood. In fact, Baltimore beat San Diego last season by a score of 16-13, so have some faith in this underdog.

NEW ENGLAND (-23) over Philadelphia
New England has won 5 of their 10 games by more than 23 points this season, including winning by 46 points over Buffalo last week. Factor in that Philly QB McNabb is listed as day-to-day with a bad ankle and thumb (I’d be taking a hammer to my thumb and/or ankle to miss this game if I was him) and you have a back-up QB going up against the 4th-best defence, not to mention the Patriots’ top-ranked offence. If this game was in Philly, I’d very reluctantly take the Eagles simply due to the points they have on their side, but with the game in Foxboro, take the Patriots for another thumping! If you’re even 1% conservative you should take Philly, or consider getting out of gambling as it ain’t for the conservative – unless you get a rush out of breaking even!

Miami (+16) over PITTSBURGH
Pittsburgh has two critical injuries for this week – WR Holmes (who leads the team in receiving yards and TD’s) along with defensive star SS Polamalu. Meanwhile the Dolphins have the 5th-ranked pass defence which should help keep Roethlisberger in check. The winless Fish lost by 21 to New England and by 17 versus Dallas – both of those teams are better than Pittsburgh, so when you factor in that plus the Steeler’s injuries you’ve gotta pick the worst team in the NFL.

Survivor
Here’s a summary of my picks thus far, with week 6 and 10 being wrong:
Week 1 - Denver over Buffalo
Week 2 – Pittsburgh over Buffalo
Week 3 – Carolina over Atlanta
Week 4 – Dallas over St.Louis
Week 5 – Tennessee over Atlanta
Week 6 – Seattle over New Orleans XXX
Week 7 – Washington over Arizona
Week 8 – Cleveland over St. Louis
Week 9 – Tampa Bay over Arizona
Week 10 – New Orleans over St. Louis XXX
Week 11 – Indianapolis over Kansas City
Week 12 – San Diego over Baltimore

Now Milton, what do you think?

The Milton Pigskin Prognosticator is a weekly contributor to MiltonSearch.com. His NFL picks can be read on Fridays every week from now until Super Bowl Sunday. Submit your predictions vs. the spread and see how well you stack up!