Jon Kitna is laughing because his upstart Detroit Lions are causing havoc for bettors and are still getting no respect.

Week 11 Picks (Home team in CAPS)

San Diego (+3) over JACKSONVILLE
Jacksonville has the third ranked rush offense in the league, however San Diego, after being crushed on the run against rookie superstar Adrian Peterson two weeks ago, made the proper adjustments last week by limiting Indianapolis to 75 total rushing yards. The Chargers have won 4 of their last 5 games – and definitely have some great momentum in their favour, while Jacksonville has lost 2 of their last 4.

INDIANAPOLIS (-14.5) over Kansas City
Just what the doctor ordered – after starting 7-0, the Colts have two straight losses – so bring in the 4-5 Chiefs (who’ve also lost two straight). The Colts will be looking to get back in stride this weekend with a good old fashioned thumping – which will be made easier by the fact KC is likely down to their back-up QB Croyle (who is he – exactly!) and RB Larry Johnson is still out. Indi has the third ranked offense and third ranked defense in the league, while KC biggest asset is a cheerleader that can belch the alphabet – you do the math!

Oakland (+5) over MINNESOTA
With Rookie of the Year Adrian Peterson out this week with a knee injury, the Vikings will have a tough time putting up any points as they’ve averaged well under 150 passing yards per game this season. The Raiders’ fourth-ranked pass defence can keep Minnesota to low passing yards and beat the crap out of the Vikings’ back-up RB Chester Taylor. Meanwhile, the Raiders have the fifth-best rush offense to challenge the strong Viking D.

Cleveland (-3) over BALTIMORE
Baltimore has the fifth-ranked overall defence in the league, thanks mostly to their ability to stop the run – that bodes well for the Browns’ impressive passing game. The Ravens can’t score, having only exceeded 14 total points in one of their past six games, while the Browns have 17 or more points in all of their past 8 games (only scoring less than 17 in week 1, which was before Anderson took over as their starting QB).

Pittsburgh (-9.5) over N.Y. JETS
The Steelers are 7-2 with 6 of their wins by more than this spread and with the Jets at 1-8 with their only win over the hapless Dolphins, the odds are good for Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh comes into this came with the fifth-ranked offense, and more impressively with the elite defensive team of the league – first overall and first against the run and the pass – the Jets will be grounded this weekend (I could throw in a bus joke if Bettis had not retired!).

Tampa Bay (-3) over ATLANTA
This is a critical game for the Bucs to keep first place in their division to themselves, and they’re coming off a bye week so they should be well prepared – including getting RB Pittman back from the injured reserve. The Bucs have the third-best pass defense in the league which spells trouble for Atlanta’s QB Harrington, leaving their underachieving running game as their only hope. Meanwhile, with Garcia at QB the Bucs are putting up more points than in years past.

Arizona (+3) over CINCINNATI
The Bengals have a horrible defense, only having the chance to win against teams with absolutely no offense (resulting in their 3 wins against Baltimore (twice) and one against the Jets). The Cardinals are still in contention for the playoffs and need to win this game to keep their hopes alive – they had a strong game in their win against Detroit last weekend and look to continue their winning ways.

Miami (+10) over PHILADELPHIA
Philly will only win this game by over 10 points if their RB Westbrook has a great game, as the Dolphins have the fifth-best pass defense – so I’ll side on the winless Dolphins since they’ve hung-in close in their past two games (losing each game by just a field goal). The Dolphins will beat the spread for this game with lots of pressure on McNabb in the form of sacks and interceptions. The Eagles have only had one win this season by more than 10 points, and that was a fluke game where they registered 9 sacks against Detroit.

New England (-15.5) over BARFALO
I spent a week in Buffalo one night – and I’ll never go back! New England has won 8 of their 9 games by more than this paltry fifteen-and-a-half point spread, including their 38-7 win over these Bills in week 3. Buffalo still stinks (except for great special teams and infrequent strong defensive games) while the Patriots are by far the best team on the planet right now. The Bills chances are further hampered with RB Lynch questionable after leaving the game last week with an ankle injury. The home fans will need to be drunker than ever to enjoy this game and/or in order to think their facial-hair covered tubby cheerleaders are anything close to hot!

Washington (+10.5) over DALLAS
This is the first meeting of the season against these great divisional adversaries – such match-ups tend to be closer games, making the underdog the wise pick. The Redskins D seems to step up against better passing teams (holding Favre to 150 passing yards) while letting lower-ranked passing teams like Arizona and the Jets pass for much more. If they can step up against the #3 passing offense and continue to run the ball well against the 5th-ranked run defence (Washington has rushed for over 400 yards combined in the past two games) then this game will indeed be close.

New Orleans over HOUSTON (pick ‘em)
Both of these teams are 4-5, so losing is not an option to stay in contention for the playoffs. The Saints have more talent – so take them to win, as they have been the hotter of the two teams, winning four of their last five. Even if Saints RB Reggie Bush is questionable they have strong back-ups at this position with Duece McAllister and Aaron Stecker.

GREEN BAY (-10) over Carolina
With the Panthers stuck with back-up QB’s for the past 3 weeks they’ve been outscored 71-27 while Brett Favre and the Packers have been lighting it up this year, with over 300 yards of passing in 6 of the last 7 games and a 13-6 TD to INT rating during that period. Combine the Panthers’ QB woes with the hostile frozen tundra of Green Bay and you’ve got a blowout.

N.Y. Giants (-3) over DETROIT
Both of these teams are coming off a loss after having won several in a row (6 for NY and 3 for Detroit). Last week was much more likely to be a reality check for the Lions (losing to middle-of-the-pack Arizona) while the Giants lost a hard-fought match to a great Dallas team. As a result, the stronger/better Giants should be able to reconfirm for everyone watching that Detroit is not yet a true contender, they should stick to making over-priced crappy American cars!

St. Louis over SAN FRANCISCO (pick ‘em)
The Rams won an impressive game over a Saints team last week that was coming into their match-up against St.Louis with 4 straight wins. This was the Rams’ first win of the season, while the 49ers have only two wins this season (having lost their last 7 games). St. Louis has their offense producing better of late, with 57 points in the past two weeks. The Rams could easily play .500 ball for the remainder of the season now that they have that monkey off their back.

SEATTLE over Chicago (pick ‘em)
What the hell is going on with all of the pick ‘em’s this week? Does this have something to do with all of the Hollywood screenwriters going on strike? Seattle will have their work cut out with RB Alexander questionable following a leg injury last week, but I can’t pick Chicago winning with QB Grossman (with emphasis on Gross) since Griese went down with a shoulder injury last week. Grossman specializes in low passing yards per game and untimely interceptions. Can you believe this was a playoff game from last year??

Tennessee (+2) over DENVER
How are the Titans not favoured in this game? The 6-3 Tennesseeans are hands down better than the 4-5 Broncos. Tennessee has the 4th-ranked running game (with Denver susceptible to the run) and the 2nd-best overall defence in the league. The Titans will showcase their abilities on Monday Night.

Survivor
Here’s a summary of my picks thus far, with week 6 and 10 being wrong:
Week 1 – Denver over Buffalo
Week 2 – Pittsburgh over Buffalo
Week 3 – Carolina over Atlanta
Week 4 – Dallas over St.Louis
Week 5 – Tennessee over Atlanta
Week 6 – Seattle over New Orleans XXX
Week 7 – Washington over Arizona
Week 8 – Cleveland over St. Louis
Week 9 – Tampa Bay over Arizona
Week 10 – New Orleans over St. Louis XXX
Week 11 – Indianapolis over Kansas City

Now Milton, what do you think?

The Milton Pigskin Prognosticator is a weekly contributor to MiltonSearch.com. His NFL picks can be read on Fridays every week from now until Super Bowl Sunday. Submit your predictions vs. the spread and see how well you stack up!

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