Milton blog

Adrian Peterson, fresh off his single-game NFL rushing record, and the electrifying Vikings take on the equally potent 7-1 Packers at Lambeau this week in what should be a beauty!

Well folks, won’t you put your hands together and welcome back the Milton Pigskin Prognosticator after a two-week hiatus sun-tanning in Florida… He’s just in time after my pathetic Week 9 performance - now I can go back to making my picks quietly in the ‘comments’ section….

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you: The MPP!

(The MPP takes the podium)

Thank you, thank you, Milton Sports Guy. And now, without further adieu and after much investigation and research, I present to you the correct Week 10 winners against the spread (Home team in CAPS):

TENNESSEE over Jacksonville (pick ‘em)
These division rivals split their series last season, with the home team winning both games. Both teams figure to be in contention for the playoffs with above-.500 records, however the Titans are more evenly balanced with the 3rd-ranked rushing offense and the second best overall defense in the league. The Jaguars’ 5th-ranked rushing offense will face the league’s top run defense. Close match-ups, but they favour the home Titans.

KANSAS CITY over Denver (pick ‘em)
Like the above game, these division rivals split their series last season, with the home team winning both games. However, both of these teams need to turn it up a notch if they hope to contend for the postseason. Both teams had key players injured last week who may not suit up – Denver’s QB Cutler injured his leg while the Chief’s RB Larry Johnson has a sprained foot. Denver’s potential QB loss is a much bigger loss, so expect K.C. to win this game at home.

Buffalo (-3) over MIAMI
The winless fish go up against an AFC rival they lost to both times last season by 10 or more points – and the Dolphins are playing worse than last year while the Bills are playing surprisingly better than last season. Take the crappy Bills to cover over the even crappier Dolphins!

Cleveland (+9) over PITTSBURGH
Pittsburgh swept this divisional series last year, won their first meeting in week one, 34 to 7 and the Steelers are 6-2 this season. However those facts alone are VERY misleading. Consider these facts: 1. Cleveland is much improved from last season with the surprise success of back-up unknown QB Anderson being 5-2 in his 7 starts (more wins than the Browns registered all of last season), 2. Charlie Frye was starting QB in the Brown’s week one loss to Pittsburgh this year, then Anderson won the job starting in week two, 3. Pittsburgh’s 6-2 record is largely over teams with losing records this season. 4. Pittsburgh’s coming off a Monday game win – one less day to prepare, and are likely overconfident. 5. The Browns currently have the 4th-ranked overall offense, while the Steelers counter with the league’s top-ranked overall defense. All of that being said, Cleveland is now in a position to challenge the Steelers and therefore will beat this spread and has a solid chance to win the game (who woulda thunk it!).

NEW ORLEANS (-11.5) over St. Louis
Once upon a time there were two teams that started the season off with four straight losses (the Saints and the Rams – this season) – from there, these two teams went in opposite directions with the Saints winning their next 4 games while the Rams rattled off four more losses (hey, at least they’re consistent!). Saints QB Drew Brees is averaging just under 300 yards per game over his past 5 games – resulting in the Saints now having the 4th-best pass offense in the league. In their four straight wins the Saints have won three of the games by eleven or more points versus better teams than St. Louis, and the Rams have lost five of their games this season by more than 12 points this season - so why stop now.

Atlanta (+4) over CAROLINA
The 4-4 Panthers have a better team than the 2-6 gone-to-the-dogs Falcons, however there’s a very good chance the Panthers may have to start their #4 QB, an undrafted rookie by the name of Matt Moore who may or may not have a helmet (#1 QB Delhomme likely out for the season with elbow injury, #2 QB David Carr may have sustained a concussion last week and #3 QB old-man Testaverde is out nursing his Achilles tendon). Starting a rookie who is #4 on the depth chart means you or I may know the Panthers’ offensive scheme better than he does. Not a winning formula in today’s NFL.

WASHINGTON (-3) over Philadelphia
The Eagles swept the Skins last season, but the Skins won the first meeting this season in week 2 in Philly by a score of 20-12. The ‘Skins are 5-3 this season, with all three loses coming against very strong teams (Giants 24-17, Packers 17-14, Patriots 52-7) – with two of their three losses to top teams ending up very close. Meanwhile the Eagles are 3-5, and over the past five games McNabb has only thrown 4 TD passes while being sacked 23 times. The ‘Skins had a top defense before being spanked by the Patriots in week 8 – look for them to regain their form at home in this one.

Minnesota (+6) over GREEN BAY
This game has lots of explosive potential – with the Packers having the 5th-ranked overall offense in the league (#2 ranked passing attack) and the Vikings have the top-ranked running game thanks to rookie sensation Adrian Peterson, who broke the all-time single game rushing yard record last week. Minnesota also counters with the #2 run defence in the league allowing them to keep this one close.

Cincinnati (+4.5) over BALTIMORE
The Ravens were 7-1 at home last season and are 3-0 at home this season, as well they have the 3rd ranked overall defense in the league. The Bengals are a dismal 2-5 despite having the 5th-best passing attack in the league and they beat Baltimore in Cincy 27-20 in week one. I like the Bengals to beat the spread for a few reasons – they’re due for a win, they average 29 points per game this year and the Ravens only average 16 points per game. Cincy’s weakness is their defense – but Baltimore hardly possesses a dangerous offense that could exploit it.

OAKLAND (+3.5) over Chicago
The Raiders have the 4th-ranked running game and the Bears D has been soft against the run this year, having given up 119 net rushing yards or more the past 4 games. The Bears also lose in the match-up of their offense against the Raider defense, as the Bears rely heavily on their passing game (having under 100 rushing yards for 6 straight games) but run up against the Raiders 4th-ranked pass defense. These are two big match-ups that favour the Raiders, plus they’re on home turf - the “Black Hole.”

N.Y. GIANTS (+1) over Dallas
These teams split their series last season, and Dallas won the first match-up this year in week one by a score of 45-35. The Cowboys are 7-1 while the 6-2 Giants have won six straight! This match-up would have a lot more hype around it if it wasn’t for the incredible Patriots-Colts game just last week. I like the Giants at home in an upset for this game – they’ve built-up some great momentum the past six weeks, having allowed their opposition to score more than 17 points in just one of the last six games, and Eli Manning is starting to play more like his big brother.

Detroit (+1) over ARIZONA
Not sure why the 3-5 Cardinals are favoured against the 6-2 Lions… Sure they won last years match-up 17-10, but the Lions were 3-13 last season and are a totally different team this year. The Cardinals lost their starting QB for the season weeks ago and back-up Warner has his non-throwing arm basically taped-together at the elbow – he’s playing with one arm, and an old one at that! Unless RB Edgerrin James finally remembers how to run the ball this week, the Cards have no hope!

Indianapolis (-3.5) over SAN DIEGO
The Chargers have been inconsistent at best this season, while the Colts will be looking to very aggressively re-assert themselves as an AFC contender after losing their first game of the season to the Pats last weekend. The Colts have the third-ranked offence and fifth-ranked defense in the league, while the Chargers are struggling to show any sign of their 14-2 2006 team this season. This game won’t be close!

SEATTLE (-10) over San Francisco
The 49ers will continue their tail spin (having lost 6 straight) due to a complete lack of offense (having only scored over 17 points once this year) while Seattle has no choice but to start playing better than their 4-4 record if they all want to keep their jobs till the end of the season. Seattle beat the 49ers 23-3 in week 4 and swept the series last season as well – this will continue.

Survivor
Here’s a summary of my correct picks in the first six weeks, with week 6 my only blemish:
Week 1 - Denver over Buffalo
Week 2 – Pittsburgh over Buffalo
Week 3 – Carolina over Atlanta
Week 4 – Dallas over St.Louis
Week 5 – Tennessee over Atlanta
Week 6 – Seattle over New Orleans XXX you let me down Seattle!!!
Week 7 – Washington over Arizona
Week 8 – Cleveland over St. Louis
Week 9 – Tampa Bay over Arizona
Week 10 – New Orleans over St. Louis

Now Milton, what do you think?

The Milton Pigskin Prognosticator is a weekly contributor to MiltonSearch.com. His NFL picks can be read on Fridays every week from now until Super Bowl Sunday. Submit your predictions vs. the spread and see how well you stack up!

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 7th, 2007 at 11:51 pm and is filed under Guy Stuff, Sports. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.