NFL Week 13 according to the Milton Pigskin Prognosticator
Thursday, November 29th, 2007
How will the Redskins react this week vs. the Bills after the tragic shooting death of Sean Taylor?
Week 13 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Green Bay (+7) over DALLAS
This is simply too big of a spread against a Packer team that is very comparable to the Cowboys. Both of these teams are 10 and 1, both have strong passing games (Green Bay 2nd, Dallas 5th) and either of these teams has a legitimate shot to win this game. Dallas has a better defense on paper, but Green Bay has more experience and a much bigger “heart” in Favre. Watch this game – it should be a good one – dare I say even more riveting than the Grey Cup.
Atlanta (+4.5) over ST. LOUIS
Sure the Rams have won 2 of their last 3, but they’re still losers of 9 of 11 games this year, while Atlanta has one more win under their belt for the season. Atlanta is wavering on who should be their starting QB (with only 4 TD passes thrown in their past 7 games) but the Rams pass defense has been mediocre (giving up over 200 yards in passing the last 4 games) so either Harrington or Leftwich should be able to perform well as the Falcons’ starting QB for this game.
WASHINGTON (-6) over Buffalo
With the tragic shooting death of one of their players this week it is near impossible to predict how the Skins will react – they could show-up with no focus and ill-prepared, or they can come out all fired-up to dominate in honour of their fallen comrade – I prefer to think the later will occur, especially in front of their home crowd. The Bills have been blown out in their last two games by a combined score of 92 to 24, so I don’t see a problem with a Skins team still fighting for a playoff spot to squeak out a win by 6 or more.
MINNESOTA (-3.5) over Detroit
The Vikings beat the Lions in both meetings last season – by 10 points and by 9, while the Lions responded by winning the first match-up this season 20 to 17. Minnesota’s won 3 of their last 4 games (with that one loss being against the 10-1 Packers) while Detroit has lost three straight (including a loss to the lowly Cardinals). The Vikings have won their past two games without their Rookie of the Year candidate RB Adrian Peterson and hope to have him back for this game which makes their chances that much better.
Houston (+4) over TENNESSEE
It’s surprising to see the Titans favoured by more than a field goal when they’ve lost 3 straight and beat Houston by just 2 points in their meeting earlier this season. In their past 8 games the Titans have only 2 TD passes compared to having thrown 11 interceptions, the only thing keeping them in some games is their 4th-ranked running game and 5th-ranked defence.
Jacksonville (+7) over INDIANAPOLIS
The Jaguars have looked solid on both sides of the ball for the past 5 weeks, winning 4 of 5, scoring 24 points per game minimum during that span and allowing no more than 23 points in all but one of these games. Meanwhile the Colts have lost a bit of their lustre starting with 2 straight losses in weeks 8 & 9 and having thrown 9 interceptions over their past four games with just 6 TD passes. Mind you, the Colts still have the 4th-ranked offense in the league backed by the second best defense, while the Jags have the 3rd-ranked running game. This should be a close division match-up.
N.Y. Jets (+1) over MIAMI
I have to take the Jets solely on principle for this game. How does an 0-11 team get favoured over anyone!?! Sure the Jets have only had two wins – but one was versus Miami (who they also beat in both games last season) and the other was an impressive win over the Steelers just two weeks ago. Did the Dolphins bring Marino out of retirement this week? Maybe Ricky Williams gave some of his “medicinal” stash to the odds makers? I don’t get it.
San Diego (-5) over KANSAS CITY
My god I’ve had no luck picking either of these teams against the spread this year due to their inconsistent play. After winning 4 of 5 the Chiefs have lost 4 straight, and over that same stretch the Chargers have won every other one of their games, going 3 and 2. KC won the earlier meeting this season 30-16 and split the two games last year, but the big difference here is that the Chargers really need this game to stay in command of their playoff destiny – that is a much stronger motivator than coach Turner yelling at them for the past 11 games to start playing with some *@!#!* consistency!!!
Seattle (+3) over PHILADELPHIA
Yeah, yeah – the Eagles gave the undefeated Patriots their toughest game of the season thus far last week, losing to them 31-28, but the 5-6 Eagles are streaky at best while the Seahawks are looking better with three straight wins and an offense that has scored 24 points or more in 5 straight games, holding their opponents to 23 or less in 4 of those 5 games. The Eagles have allowed 25 or more points to be scored against them in 3 of the last 4 and have scored only 17 points in two of those match-ups. If the Eagles did not have RB Brian Westbrook they would likely only have one win so far this season.
San Francisco (+3) over CAROLINA
Truthfully, no one deserves to win this game, however I’ll go with the hopeless 49ers, who showed guts winning 37-31 in OT last week against the equally hopeless Cardinals. The Panthers have stunk it up with 5 straight losses (allowing 31 or more points against in 3 of those losses). Both teams are forced to start back-up QB’s and some poor commentators are forced to attend and do the play-by-play for this “game”.
Tampa Bay (+3) over NEW ORLEANS
The Saints need this win over their division-leading opponent if they hope to have a chance to catch the Bucs in the NFC South, but the Bucs have won 3 straight and spanked the Saints in their first meeting this season 31-14. This game pits the Saints 4th-ranked passing game against the Bucs 5th-ranked passing defense. Meanwhile the Bucs running game has been surprisingly decent (120 plus rushing yards in 4 of the last five) while the Saints have not been as fortunate.
Cleveland (+1) over ARIZONA
Are the Browns deathly allergic to dry heat? This game will be all Cleveland. The 7-4 Browns are by far the better team in this match-up, with the Cardinals showing extra uselessness in their OT collapse against the weak 49er team just last week.
OAKLAND (+3) over Denver
QB Cutler has looked strong for the Broncos the past several weeks, however he’s up against the 4th-ranked pass defense and the Raiders have the 5th-best running game (with the Broncos run defense being very suspect this season). The Broncos have won the past 3 meetings, but two of those games were close ones, as a result I like the Raiders at home.
N.Y. Giants (-2) over CHICAGO
The Bears are coming off the high of a big 37-34 win over Denver last week while the Giants had a wake-up call against the Vikings last week, losing 41-17. As a result the Bears will be ill-prepared, with a horrible excuse for a QB in Grossman, while the Giants’ QB Eli Manning is dying to get out on the field and erase the memories of the 4 picks he threw last week. The only Bears’ threat will be neutralized as long as the Giants do not kick the ball to their return expert who won it for them last week.
Cincinnati (+7) over PITTSBURGH
The Steelers are coming off a Monday nighter where they barely beat the winless Dolphins 3 to 0 and lost the previous week to the hapless Jets. As a result, it is safe to say they’re not looking so hot right now. With one less day to prepare, the Steelers could have a tough time against a Bengal team that had an impressive win over a strong Titan team last week (35-6). The Bengals beat the Steelers in one of their meetings last season and lost the other game against them last year in overtime, so this division match-up should prove to be another close one. Enjoy watching the Steelers’ #1 pass defense against the Bengals’ #3 passing game.
BALTIMORE (+20.5) over New England
You’ve got to factor pride into this decision. No one likes losing the Monday nighter in front of a national audience – especially at home. As a result, Ray Lewis will have his defensive teammates all stoked to keep the perfect Patriots in check, having taken notes on how the Eagles played New England very close last week. If anyone can apply pressure to QB Tom Brady similar to the Eagles last week, it is the 4th-ranked Raven defense – this will keep the game within 20 points, but the Patriots will still win.
Survivor
Here’s a summary of my picks thus far, the only blemishes coming in weeks 6 and 10:
Week 1 - Denver over Buffalo
Week 2 – Pittsburgh over Buffalo
Week 3 – Carolina over Atlanta
Week 4 – Dallas over St.Louis
Week 5 – Tennessee over Atlanta
Week 6 – Seattle over New Orleans XXX
Week 7 – Washington over Arizona
Week 8 – Cleveland over St. Louis
Week 9 – Tampa Bay over Arizona
Week 10 – New Orleans over St. Louis XXX
Week 11 – Indianapolis over Kansas City
Week 12 – San Diego over Baltimore
Week 13 – New England over Baltimore
Now Milton, what do you think?
The Milton Pigskin Prognosticator is a weekly contributor to MiltonSearch.com. His NFL picks can be read on Fridays every week from now until Super Bowl Sunday. Submit your predictions vs. the spread and see how well you stack up!






