MLB Division Series Preview
Matt Holliday crashes in to score the winning run, clinching the a wild card berth for the Rockies and eliminating San Diego
After watching my beloved Padres get eliminated from postseason contention in the 163rd game of the year in heartbreaking fashion vs. a division rival, it’s time to look ahead and make my Division Series predictions…
Let’s start in the American League, where in my mind, all signs are pointing to a Yankees/Red Sox ALCS, which is always bittersweet. Do I really want to watch those clubs advance - two evil empires and perennial division rivals of the local team, the Toronto Blue Jays? Of course not. I hate both clubs with a passion and I’m just praying for a year in which both clubs’ big free agent signings totally backfire and each team misses the playoffs… Like that’s going to happen. BUT, if they have to play, it’s always good television. The two highest-spending clubs, steeped in tradition matching up is always chalk full of drama… Anyway, I just think it’s a New York/Boston kind of year - I don’t like the Angels and the Indians are good but young.
Boston Red Sox vs. the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
I think Boston sweeps this one. The Angels are a little banged up, and even when healthy during the season, this club didn’t impress me. I know they ran away with their division, but when I got the chance to see them play the Jays earlier in the season, they were less than impressive. It seems like it’s Boston’s year — I have to take them until someone proves they can beat them.
Red Sox 3-0
Cleveland Indians vs. New York Yankees
The Tribe are a great young club, but they’re just that: young. Other than the ageless wonder, Kenny Lofton, they have exactly zero playoff experience. Does that matter? Maybe not that much — but against a veteran Yankee club looking to make amends for two straight first round exits, I think it will. If the Yankees lose, it will be because their pitching let them down yet again, which was the case two years ago vs. the Angels and last year against the Tigers. Cleveland has the better pitching staff, but I think the Yankee lineup will wear them out. They’ll split in Cleveland and the Yanks will win both back in the Bronx.
Yankees 3-1
Okay, now the National League. Yes, it still hurts seeing the Rockies travel to Philly, but I think my Padres were a flawed team. They rely too much on their pitching staff, which just hasn’t come through in the clutch the last two playoffs. Factor that with an anemic offence, and I think the Phillies make quick work of them in 3 or 4 games. Padres: go and re-tool - bring in a couple of bats and continue to tweak the pitching staff and come back next year. Until then, go away - you don’t have the tools to win in October. The Rockies are a well-balanced team (and they’re also red hot, winning 14 of 15 down the stretch) who should give the Phils all they can handle. The Cubs/DBacks series should be good too, although I won’t be watching the first two games in Phoenix with those late start times…
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
Well, the Cubbies are back to the postseason, so here we go again: How will they screw it up in dramatic fashion yet again? Well, lucky for Cubs’ fans with heart problems, I think they’ll be gone quickly before having the chance to perform another monumental collapse in the NLCS on the verge of the World Series…. The DBacks are young and scrappy, have a great pitching staff, home advantage and are playing with a nothing-to-lose attitude. The Cubs have some loose cannons on their team, including their manager. That will cost them at some point. Oh, and they’re not really that good, either.
DBacks 3-2
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are red hot, amazingly winning 14 of 15 down the stretch, including a dramatic 13-inning come-from-behind victory in a one-game playoff vs. the Padres to qualify for the dance. The Phillies played well down the stretch also, winning the division on the last day, a game earlier than the Rockies. Will the Rockies continue their run, or are they running on empty now after making the playoffs? Normally, we fall in love with the hot team down the stretch when in fact, in the last few seasons, teams that struggled in September were able to right the ship and knock out the up-and-comers (see last year’s World Series Champion Cardinals, and the White Sox before them). So take the Phillies right? Well, no. The Phillies still had no right being in the playoffs — I think it had more to do with the Mets’ unfathomable collapse than their play. The Rockies earned it. They have a young, balanced team with some solid pitching and Holliday and Helton tearing the cover off the ball. The Phillies’ big slugger, Ryan Howard on the other hand, has a high strikeout total. He’s the kind of player that puts up big regular season numbers but falls flat on his face in the playoffs when the pitching is tougher and the pressure is on…
Rockies 3-1
Now Milton, what do you think?
October 5th, 2007 at 10:41 am
I’ve always liked that Jeff Francis, out of Vancouver - after striking out Ryan Howard (homered in each of his previous 4 games, and one of the most initimidating-looking dudes at the plate) for the 3rd time with some high heat (Howard looked completely clueless) to end the inning, he strolled off the mound, scratched his nose, and I could almost see him wondering if he took the chicken out to defrost - contrast that with the “8th-inning fist-pumpers”, like Jojoba Chamberlain of the Yankees. The day before his start, Francis said that the Phillies lineup was great, and that yes, he was quite nervous - bull - the guy’s a killer.
I’m feeling rather Jocketty today.
October 5th, 2007 at 10:42 am
I am in tears laughing at the “chicken out to defrost†comment.……
That is absolutely hilarious. Yep Francis rocks. Not in your face like Clown-boy Zambrano.
I was happy to hear that “Yaps†Marquis is relegated again to the bullpen in Chicago instead of a starter. Just waiting to see if someone interviews him and have him blow up about not being a starter again.
Time to turn over a new leaf in Sinloois. Loved Jocketty, but like all good GM’s they eventually become stale. Walt will do very well wherever he goes, but just made one too many “Edmonds†signings in Sinloois. I’m sure this is just the first step. You will see LaRussa follow Jocketty wherever he lands.
October 5th, 2007 at 10:54 am
Sorry about the Pads loss the other night, MSG. I still think the guy was clearly out at home, but one out with two on and they may have lost anyways. Some thoughts:
-Was Hoffman sick and Isringhaussen put on his sweater and pitched for him? I can’t believe the all-time saves leader could cough up 4 straight hits without an out in one of the biggest games of his life.
- I thought as soon as the Pads went up in the 13th it was lights out. Most of Izzy’s saves this year (32 of 34) were just like last night, led off by a double a walk here and there — always shaky. I thought Hoffman was better than that. Tough way to go out should this be his last year. (not sure of his contract status)
- The Padre that hit the homerun in the 13th should be called “The Prophet†as I read his lips saying “It’s not over yet boys†over and over to the guys already pouring the champagne over each others’ heads in the dugout
- “Hi, I’d like to buy a fielder that can catch pleaseâ€. The Bradley curse continues not just with the absence of the bat, but the two brutal plays by their centre fielder. Add to that the play in the 8th by Holliday and I’ve rarely seen such poor defense when the season was on the line.
- Yes that was a Rockies homerun that went off the chair and back on to the field. Perhaps if the outfield umpires would stand by the wall (see Jeter’s homerun vs. Baltimore in 96 for another example) they could make the right call. Don’t stand 5 feet behind the 1st and 3rd base coaches. These guys are a bit large to sprint out to the fence quicker than a baseball can get there.
- I guess Peavy has graduated from “Can’t pitch against the Cards in the playoffs†to “Chokes in the big games†which is very disappointing for me. I still think he’s an awesome pitcher. Not sure if it was just the hitters park, but they were really feasting off him last night.
- Pads could try to blame a lot of things on last night, but it was really the sweep by Colorado a week or two ago, plus not getting it done against Milwaukee that killed them.
- Lastly, I just knew when they didn’t go after any big names at the trade deadline it was going to be difficult for them. With that pitching staff it was totally the time to open the purse strings and get an Adam Dunn, or even Griffey Jr as a rental player. Perhaps there just wasn’t that much out there, but there were at least 4 or 5 big names (Andruw Jones) that people thought would be moved at the deadline that went nowhere.
Tough one buddy. Guess I’m cheering for Cleveland now, and perhaps the Phillies.
Speaking of Phillies, I see Senor MVP Howard set the MLB record for strikeouts this year. Should we start calling him Rob Deer?? (you recall the year he led the league in homeruns for the Tigers with a .150 batting average) Mind you I think Deer had 45 homeruns and 50 RBI’s or something like that. Howard is no Pujols until he gets that average up. Pujols would have had 150 RBI easily if he had anyone getting on base ahead of him, and perhaps any kind of threat (see Edmonds, Jim) following him in the order.
October 5th, 2007 at 12:28 pm
Okay, before we get to the Division Series results thus far, I’ll take a second to respond to your comments on the Padres….
Yes, Hoffman looked very Izzy-like. This is the way it is with closers. They can be either dominating or terrible. The truth is, despite racking up the saves over the last few seasons, Hoffman’s been steadily declining. He does blow his share of saves, and one thing I’ve definitely noticed is that this happens in bunches. He’ll blow 2 or 3 in a week, then save 25 in a row, then blow 2 more in a week…. I totally saw the meltdown coming on Monday night - I didn’t think the Rockies would get 3 to win, but I saw them at least tying it up because Hoffman was coming off a huge blown save on Saturday in Milwaukee when, with two strikes, Tony Gwynn Jr. (ironically), tripled to win the game for the Brew Crew when the Padres could have clinched a postseason berth right there… When it comes to closers, remember this: when guys are nearing the all-time saves record, it usually means they’re not really that good anymore - like Hoffman, it means they’re really on their last legs, nearing the end of their careers… closers have a shelf life - Hoffman’s just about at the end. He’s had a great run, but guys are onto him now - his fastball doesn’t have the velocity anymore to set up his devastating change. It looked like he was just chucking up beach balls - he didn’t have anyone fooled - they hit him around like nothing. The one thing I can’t figure out, is why managers just ’stick with the closer’ at all costs…. I could see it coming a mile away - if the closer gives up 3 straight hits, change things up. Don’t just say ignorantly ‘he’s my closer - it’s his game to lose.’ My thought is that managers need to get rid of that way of thinking. Maybe they go to the bully and bring out the next guy who ‘has it’ that night and he induces a DP and strikes out a guy or something? Easy to second guess now, but I think that mindset has to change.
When Hairston hit the 2-run HR to put the Padres up, I thought the celebrations were a bit too much on the bench - throw Coors in there with Fenway, Yankee Stadium and the old ‘Launching Pad’ in Atlanta where inconceivable comebacks seem to happen regularly. I knew it wasn’t over.
I missed the outfield blunder by the Padre CF, but Holliday’s was brutal. The Rockies win in 9 innings if he makes that play. All I can say is that because of Giles’ handcuffed, awkward swing, it must have looked like a blooper off the bat - I didn’t think it was going to the wall when he hit it, but then hey, that’s Coors Field for ya.
I couldn’t tell, but yes, I thought for a second the Rockie player hit it out and it bounced back, just ‘looking’ like it hit the yellow padding. That would explain why Clint Hurdle was out there for an hour-and-a-half arguing what I thought was a no-brainer call. And yes, said outfield umpires need to get their fat arses out into the, you know, outfield!
Peavy: dominant one second, then grooving pitches a minute later…. So far, he’s just not a playoff performer. He was also shelled early and often in all 3 of his starts in the last two playoffs vs. the Cardinals. In all of his postseason starts, the Padres were out of it right off the bat. That tells me it wasn’t the fact that it was Coors Field. Last year the Cards killed him at Petco, the best pitchers’ park in baseball.
A big bopper. They need a big bopper. I know in SD, won’t hit as many home runs, but they need a feared bat in that lineup - especially now that Giles has really fallen off and is batting leadoff?? Also, not all games are at Petco - a Dunn, Andruw Jones or even a Griffey look a lot more dangerous playing on the road in Houston, Philly or Colorado. They can get into pitchers’ duels at home, but playing in those little banboxes, it helps to have some sluggers. I was critical of them this year - instead of parlaying the best soon-to-be-closer (Linebrink) into a bat, they traded him for a bucket of balls and then went on to pick up guys like Barrett. The Bradley injury of course didn’t help either, but I’m not sure he was the answer. He hit awesome down the stretch, but when you sign guys like that, you’re playing with fire (see: timebomb, ticking).
Yeah, it was a heartbreaker, but I hope this shows them they need to re-tool. They need to tweak the pitching staff and add a big bat or two if they can and get more serious at making a run for it all instead of just squeaking into the playoffs each year on strong pitching and mediocre hitting….
My $.02.
October 5th, 2007 at 1:47 pm
I just looked at a breakdown of the last 12 (or so) games the Mets played, and wow, what an impressive collection of disasters: sweep by the second-place team, blow-out losses to terrible (Marlins & Nationals) teams, blow-out comebacks by said terrible teams, extra-inning losses, and an almost-comback - with a high payroll, in first-place virtually the whole season, and following last season when they lost to the Cards in Game 7, by a run, with a man on base, I believe. Bwoot’l, but hilarious.
October 5th, 2007 at 1:48 pm
Yep, I still vividly remember the Wainwright curveball to Beltran who watched strike three in Game 7. The sheer look of horror and disbelief on Beltran’s face as the ball started at about 6ft high and a foot outside and just bent ever so Steib-ian back over the outside corner is etched into the memory forever. Beautiful payback for all of the times he’s hammered the Cards.
I totally thought the Mets were the team to beat this year in the NL. Looked great on paper even before Pedro came back.